Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/030722a.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales rose another 0.3% last week. The gain added to sharp increases in each of the prior two weeks according to the BTM-UBSW survey.
So far in July, sales are 1.4% ahead of the June average which was barely changed from May.
During the last five years there has been a 60% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.
The BTM-UBSW retail chain-store sales index is constructed from the sales results reported by seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">7/19/03</th>
<th scope="col">7/12/03</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>425.2</td>
<td>423.9</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
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Chain store sales rose another 0.3% last week. The gain added to sharp increases in each of the prior two weeks according to the BTM-UBSW survey. So far in July, sales are 1.4% ahead of the June average which was barely changed from [...]

Chain Stores Add To Sales Gain

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Robert Brusca

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The OECD seven-country LEI rose in December and is gaining at an annual rate of 1.1% over three months, up marginally from a pace of 0.9% over six months and doubling its growth rate over 12 months. Still, all of these are modest numbers. Japan’s LEI was flat in December and shows LEI declines over three months, six months and 12-months. The U.S. shows a gain of 0.2% in December with a 1.8% annual rate rise over three months, a 1.3% pace over six months and the same 0.5% gain year-over-year as for the OECD7. The index levels show an OECD7 queue standing in its 66.8 percentile, the U.S. a tad stronger at its 68.2 percentile and Japan much weaker and below tis median pace at a 36-percentile standing.

The OECD likes to judge these indicators over six months. So, I construct six-month averages, and we see the same 0.4% U.S. and OECD7 gains on this average for its change month-to-month in December and November for both. Japan turns up flat in December on this metric and shows declines over three months and 12 months. In contrast, China shows declines on this averaged gauge in December and in November but shows growing momentum from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months. The 6-month growth rate show strength in the rankings for the U.S., China, and the OECD7. But Japan also sputters in terms of growth rates on 6-month changes with a 36-percentile standing.

The amplitude adjusted metrics show only France persistently with a reading below 100 - but Japan walks the line. The ratio to six months ago shows only Japan and Germany weakening. The queue standings show only Japan and Germany, with readings below their respective medians (values below 50%).

The OECD data are not very reassuring. While conditions show basic advancing trends, they are advancing slowly with little evidence of strength. The U.S. has the strongest standing on OECD index levels and growth rates, and they are largely in the 68th and 81st percentile ranges. Germany and Japan sport 36-percentile standings for their LEI index levels on amplitude adjusted readings. These are very weak reading for two important economies.

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OECD LEIS Creep Ahead

Tian Yong Woon

In our first economic letter of the year, we focus on China. Despite positive economic surprises in recent months (Chart 1) and growth now on track to meet the “around 5%” target, China’s recovery remains uneven and subject to downside risk. In response, China’s authorities have rolled out more fiscal and monetary easing measures (Chart 2), broadening both their scale and their scope. However, some observers continue to question whether these measures will be effective, particularly in addressing deeper structural issues.

Amid expectations of low interest rates and concerns about a deflationary spiral, investors have bought more Chinese bonds, driving yields to record lows (Chart 3). The continued decline in bond yields prompted the authorities to intervene on Friday and halt further bond purchases. Looking ahead, China faces several challenges, with US trade policy, in particular, a key concern (Chart 4).

Ahead of potential US trade actions, producers and importers have taken precautionary steps, boosting supplies, and thereby driving China’s export growth in recent months (Chart 5). Nonetheless, export prices have continued to decline, and the yuan has weakened further. Against this backdrop there will be much interest in this week’s upcoming data releases, including the highly anticipated Q4 GDP report (Chart 6).

**Recent developments**
Although there have been some positive developments, lingering macroeconomic challenges persist. On the one hand, the extent of economic surprises in China, as shown in Chart 1, remains largely positive, with a flurry of positive surprises late last year. On the other hand, concerns in sectors like the property market continue to weigh on the economy. Moreover, the pace of China’s economic recovery remains uneven across sectors, as reflected in the latest PMI readings. The manufacturing sector shows only mild expansions, while the non-manufacturing sector continues to grow at a faster pace. Nonetheless, President Xi has recently stated that China is on track to meet its growth target of "around 5%" for 2024. China’s real GDP growth has certainly stayed close to the 5% target, narrowly missing it with a 4.8% year-over-year growth in Q3.

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China’s authorities have pledged continued support for the economy. On the fiscal front, leaders have committed to increasing the budget deficit to 4% of GDP while maintaining a growth target of "around 5%", thereby providing more room for expenditure. Additionally, authorities have reportedly agreed to significantly increase special bond issuance to 3 trillion yuan ($409 billion) in 2025, setting a new annual record. To further stimulate consumption, the government announced an expansion of the home appliance trade-in subsidy program, increasing the eligible items from eight to twelve. Additionally, millions of government workers received pay raises, boosting their disposable income and potentially driving greater consumption. On the monetary side, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has reaffirmed its "moderately loose" policy stance, promising to further reduce the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, though the timing of these moves remains unclear. While these measures signal a clear intent to support the economy, some observers argue that they may not be sufficient to spark a robust recovery. Others, however, believe that the cautious approach is appropriate given the current circumstances.

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The recent rally in China’s bond markets appears to be fuelled by expectations of continued monetary easing and concerns over a potential deflationary spiral, among other factors. Investors have stepped up their purchases of Chinese bonds, driving yields to record lows, with the 10-year government bond yield at one point falling below 1.6%, as shown in Chart 3. This stands in contrast to the US, where government bond yields have risen due to a market reassessment of Fed rate cuts and expectations surrounding President-elect Trump’s policies. China's December CPI reading, which dropped to a nine-month low of just 0.1% year-on-year, has further heightened concerns of deflation. These factors have reignited fears of a potential "Japanification" of China, drawing parallels to the 1990s when Japan experienced leverage, persistently low inflation (and often deflation) as well as weak consumption.

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**Looming headwinds, anticipatory moves**
Adding to China’s challenges are potential actions from incoming US President Trump, who has maintained a hawkish stance on China as America’s economic rival. At the core of Trump’s position is his dissatisfaction with China’s large and persistent current account surplus with the US, primarily driven by trade (Chart 4), and concerns about its impact on the US economy. Additional worries focus on China’s overcapacity, which has supported export growth, and the extensive use of state subsidies that were perceived to have harmed US industries. As a result, Trump’s proposed solution—tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese exports to the US—could undermine one of China’s few remaining growth drivers, namely trade.

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Producers and importers of Chinese goods have taken proactive steps in response to expected headwinds, with exports growing by double digits in October and December ahead of Trump’s return to office. Despite this, export prices have continued to decline (Chart 5), a trend some attribute to ongoing overcapacity in China. In response to potential US tariff actions, producers have also taken steps such as reorganizing supply chains and outsourcing from other economies. On the currency side, the yuan, along with many other Asian currencies, has depreciated significantly against the US dollar, which has made Chinese exports cheaper. However, whether a weaker yuan can fully offset the impact of looming US tariffs on China remains uncertain.

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**Upcoming data**
Looking ahead to the coming week, China’s data releases will be pivotal for investors in shaping their views on the economy. Along with its usual monthly reports, including retail sales, industrial production, unemployment, and house prices, China will release the highly anticipated Q4 GDP data (Chart 6), providing greater clarity on the economy's performance in 2024. Analysts will be keen to assess whether the recent easing measures are beginning to yield positive effects. Additionally, attention will likely turn to domestic travel and spending patterns during the upcoming Chinese New Year holidays later in the month, as these may offer insights into consumer sentiment and spending behaviour in period ahead.

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Asia

Economic Letter From Asia: On China

Peter D'Antonio

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December payroll employment gains of 256,000 far exceeded expectations of a 150,000 rise, pointing to a resilient economy and suggesting that the Fed may be on hold for longer than previously anticipated. Uncertainty about the course of Fed policy has heightened focus on the employment report in recent months, as markets have tried to gauge the pace of policy easing. Today’s figures gave the first clean reading on the labor market in several months after distortions from weather and strikes.

The reading from the household survey was very strong as well. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1% in December from 4.2% in November. Markets had expected an unchanged reading of 4.2%. The December unemployment rate decline reflected a solid rise in the labor force of 243,000, a jump in employment of 478,000, and a decline in unemployment of 235,000.

The household survey revealed that the number of job leavers jumped for the second straight month, suggesting increased confidence in the labor market. Also, the number of people working part-time for economic reasons fell for the fourth consecutive month.

Payrolls have been extremely volatile in recent months. Three of the past five readings have exceeded 200,000, while the other two figures fell short of 100,000. Through this volatility, the underlying trend over six-month spans hovered near 140,000 by November. The December figure pushed the six-month average payroll gain up to 165,000.

The December gain in payrolls was widespread across services. Goods-producing payrolls declined by 8,000, reflecting continued weakness in manufacturing. But private services added 231,000, which was the biggest gain since May 2023. Within services, healthcare and social assistance continued to post the biggest gain at 70,000, with leisure and hospitality adding 43,000. Government employment remained solid as well, rising 33,000.

While the payroll gains were undoubtedly strong, the average workweek and average hourly earnings did not signal renewed strength. The workweek remained at a lackluster 34.3 hours and hourly earnings increased by 0.3%. That lowered the year-to-year rise to 3.9%, probably reflecting the ongoing normalization of job openings.

The strength in this report suggests that Fed policy will remain tighter for longer. The bond market already has responded, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising 6bps to 4.74%, which is the highest since October 2023. Futures prices also suggest that markets are pushing out the timing of expected rate cuts. It will be important to monitor future employment reports to see if the December strength continues.

The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Widespread job gains in December.
- Jobless rate edges down.
- Earnings pressures ease.


Strong Payroll Report Signals Economic Resilience

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French retail sales volumes fell by 0.1% in November after falling by 0.1% in October; July was the last month to produce a month-to-month increase in retail sales volumes. In July 2024, those volumes increased by 0.2%. Sales volume trends in France continue to be weak.

Year-over-year growth rates for all products show a 0.1% decline in volume which has a 51.7 percentile rank on data back to mid-2007. Among the various categories, food purchases have a sub-50-percentile ranking as do electronics and the sales of new autos. These sub-50-percentile rankings indicate that the current year-over-year growth rates are below the median growth rate for year-over-year sales since mid-2007. It's unusual to see food rank so low; however, automobiles and electronics certainly count as discretionary purchases and if the economy is under pressure we would expect to see some weakness in electronics and in auto sales; that appears to be the case in France.

Other categories show sales rankings that range from firm-to-strong. Strong sales emerged in footwear, a small-ticket item, where an 84.2 percentile standing derives from a year-over-year growth rate of 7.2%. Household appliances, a heftier household expenditure, show a 5.1% increase in sales volumes for an 81.8 percentile standing, also a strong result. Furniture sales, where the growth rate is a milder 1.3%, still scores a 71.3 percentile standing for this period. Textile sales are up by 1.5% year-on-year, which scores an above-median 67-percentile standing. For all industrial goods, a 0.5% increase in spending marks a 56.5 percentile standing overall, a small gain above its historic median rate.

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France continues to struggle with growth. It also is facing political instability which creates problems of its own. Globally the political guard is changing and a lot of Western countries as well as in Japan show political fallout from policies pursued during COVID. These policies have generated voter dissatisfaction and have led to demands for change. Of course, the parties that are being displaced in this process claim that they are being removed for global conditions that were beyond their control, but people generally feel that the policies pursued in each instance were policies that were not really warranted by circumstances or that in some cases policies are believed to have made matters worse. There is a great deal of recrimination and denial post-Covid and the full facts still are not out. Leaks from the German Koch institute provide a peek into Covid policies and cooperation among G7 countries ([here](https://www.heise.de/en/news/RKIFiles-Whistleblower-leaks-unredacted-minutes-of-the-Corona-crisis-team-9812035.html)). These leaks and allegations help to explain the loss of political trust.

Since early-2024, French auto purchases have turned decidedly and consistently weak. France scored as weak at 27.4% in its EMU sentiment index ranking for December. French retailing in the EMU Commission survey has a 22.3 percentile standing (lower one-fourth to fifth in its queue of historic results), making it weaker than the EMU overall on retail confidence and the weakest among the four largest EMU economies: Germany, Italy, Spain, and France. Interestingly, the two largest EMU economies, Germany and France, have the weakest relative consumer scores in this December survey. Both countries are also working through political change.

Chain Stores Add To Sales Gain

Summary

Tom Moeller

More Economy in Brief

OECD LEIS Creep Ahead

Economic Letter From Asia: On China

Strong Payroll Report Signals Economic Resilience

French Retailing Shows Weakness