Global| Nov 30 2004Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Fell, Employment Strong
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 3.3 points in November to 65.2 and reversed half of the October move upward. Consensus expectations had been for a decline to 62.0. During the last ten years there has been a 73% [...]
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 3.3 points in November to 65.2 and reversed half of the October move upward. Consensus expectations had been for a decline to 62.0.
During the last ten years there has been a 73% correlation between the level of the Chicago Business Barometer and the three month change in factory sector industrial output. That correlation has risen to 86% during the last five years.
The new orders index reversed nearly all of the October gain with a 9.4 point drop. Conversely, the employment index added 6.7 points to a slight October uptick and rose to the highest level since 1988. During the last twenty years there has been an 80% correlation between the level of this employment index and the three month change in factory sector employment.
The index of prices paid rose to 89.8. During the last ten years there has been an 88% correlation between the Chicago price index and the three month change in the "core" intermediate goods PPI.
| Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA | Nov | Oct | Nov '03 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Barometer | 65.2 | 68.5 | 62.9 | 54.7 | 52.7 | 41.4 |
| New Orders | 70.0 | 79.4 | 68.5 | 58.0 | 56.2 | 42.3 |
| Prices Paid | 89.8 | 84.1 | 68.1 | 55.8 | 56.9 | 50.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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