China's Surplus on Total Trade in Goods Down Sharply in February But Less So With the U.S.

China's balance on trade in goods declined substantially in February to $8.6 billion from $19.5 billion in January. Both exports and imports declined; the former by 20% and the latter by 13%. The unadjusted figures are shown in the first chart. Part of the declines in exports and imports may have resulted from the extreme weather conditions which disrupted transportation. In addition, the variable occurrence of the Chinese New Year always introduces anomalies in Chinese statistics at the beginning of the year.

Haver Analytics adjusts the data for seasonal factors and the occurrence of the Chinese New Year. These adjusted data are shown in the second chart. Even with seasonal adjustment, the decline in the balance of trade remains significant. The seasonally adjusted exports show a decline, the seasonally adjusted imports show a substantial rise.

While the total trade balance shows a decline of over 50% for both the seasonally adjusted and the non adjusted data for February, the balance of trade with the U. S. showed a smaller decline of about 20% for the seasonally adjusted and unadjusted. On a seasonally adjusted basis Chinese exports to the U.S. were still positive. The third chart compares the Chinese balance of trade with the U.S. on a seasonally adjusted and an unadjusted basis. Finally the fourth chart compares the total Chinese surplus on trade with the surplus on trade with the U. S.