Chinese Exports of Goods on the Way to Surpass Those of the U. S. and Germany in the Next Five Years

August exports of goods from the Republic of China recorded a 32% increase over the year ago figure according to the CEIC data that are available in Haver's CEIC China Premium Database. At this pace, it is not surprising that OECD (Organization for Economic and Development) in its first Survey of China suggests that China could overtake the United States and Germany as the world's largest exporter, in the next five years. A summary of the OECD Economic Survey of China can be found at here.

The growth in China's exports of goods compared with that of the U.S. is shown in the first chart, and with that of Germany in the second chart. The data for Germany and the
U. S. are only through July. The differences between the growth rates of China versus the U. S. and China versus Germany have been consistently large over the past few years. Exports of goods and the annual growth rates for the three countries are shown below for the past five years. In 2004, exports of goods from the U. S., Germany and China were, respectively, $816 billion, $912 billion and $593 billion.