U.S. Energy Prices Increase Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Gasoline prices reach three-month high.
- Crude oil costs surge.
- Natural gas prices strengthen to two-year high.
Retail gasoline prices for all grades rose to an average $3.23 per gallon (1.5% y/y) in the week ending January 20 from $3.16 in the prior week. The all-time high of $5.11 was in the week ending June 13, 2022. The retail price for on-highway diesel fuel jumped to $3.72 per gallon (-3.2% y/y) in the week of January 20, the highest level since early-August, from $3.60 in the prior week. The latest price was down from a high of $4.63 in the week ending September 18, 2023 and a peak of $5.81 in the week ending June 20, 2022.
The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose to $78.58 per barrel (7.3% y/y) in the week ending January 17 after increasing to $74.32 in the prior week. It was the highest level in five months but still below the peak of $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $75.89 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil rose to $82.53 per barrel (3.0% y/y) in the week of January 17 from $78.14 in the prior week. Prices remained below a peak of $127.40 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday’s price was $80.57 per barrel.
Natural gas prices surged to an average $5.47/mmbtu (87.3% y/y) in the week of January 17 from $3.93 in the prior week, posting the highest level since a high of $5.11/mmbtu in the week of January 12, 2024. Prices reached a low of $1.40/mmbtu in the week of March 15, 2024 and a peak of $9.56 in the week of August 26, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $4.40/mmbtu.
Gasoline demand rose 0.8% y/y in the four weeks ending January 10 on top of a 1.2% y/y gain in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products increased 1.1% y/y in the four weeks ending January 10. Crude oil input to refineries increased 1.2% y/y in the four weeks ending January 10 after a 1.5% y/y rise in the prior four weeks.
Gasoline inventories fell 1.8% y/y in the week ending January 10 after a 3.0% y/y decline in the prior week. In contrast, residual fuel oil inventories fell 12.1% y/y in the week of January 10 following a 5.7% y/y decrease in the prior week. Crude oil inventories rose 2.7% y/y in the week of January 10, the same as during the prior week.
Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories rose to 28.7 days in the week of January 10 from 27.5 days in the prior week, registering the highest reading since the end of February 2024. The recent low was 22.9 days in the week of November 8. The supply of crude oil was little changed at 24.6 days in the week of January 10, still near the lowest number since a low of 24.8 days in the week of September 20, 2024 and below a high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.
These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s WEEKLY & USENERGY database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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