Global| Nov 30 2004Consumer Confidence Down Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Boards Index of Consumer Confidence fell for the fourth consecutive month, down 2.6% in November to the lowest level (90.5) since March. Consensus expectations had been for a reading of 96.0. During the last twenty [...]
The Conference Board’s Index of Consumer Confidence fell for the fourth consecutive month, down 2.6% in November to the lowest level (90.5) since March. Consensus expectations had been for a reading of 96.0.
During the last twenty years there has been a 51% correlation between consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
The index of consumer expectations fell sharply for the third month in the last four to 87.4 (-12.7% y/y). The present situation index rose modestly to 95.2 (+17.5% y/y) following three months of decline.
Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 28.1% of survey participants versus 27.9% in October and by 31.8% during all of last year. Fewer jobs in six months were expected by 19.7% of participants, the highest percentage in a year.
The Conference Board’s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.
| Conference Board | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence | 90.5 | 92.9 | -2.2% | 79.8 | 96.6 | 106.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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