Global| Mar 28 2006Consumer Confidence Up Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board's Index of Consumer Confidence jumped 4.4% during March to 107.2, the highest level in nearly four years. The jump compared to Consensus expectations for stability at 102.0 and the m/m stability in the University [...]
The Conference Board's Index of Consumer Confidence jumped 4.4% during March to 107.2, the highest level in nearly four years. The jump compared to Consensus expectations for stability at 102.0 and the m/m stability in the University of Michigan's March Index of Consumer Sentiment.
During the last twenty years there has been a 52% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.
The index of consumers' expectations recovered most of the prior month's decline with a sharp 6.8% (-4.1% y/y) gain. Expectations for business conditions improved for the first month in four and more jobs were expected for the first month in three. Expectations for stock prices surged.
Consumers' assessment of the present situation rose for the fifth straight month. The 2.3% increase (13.9% y/y) was driven by a rise in the percentage of respondents who viewed jobs as plentiful to 28.4%, the highest since 2001. Business conditions were thought to be good by 28.3% of respondents, the highest since last July.
Price inflation expected in twelve months fell to 4.8%, down slightly from the 5.2% expected in December and down sharply from the 6.8% expected last September.
The Conference Board’s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.
| Conference Board | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence | 107.2 | 102.7 | 4.1% | 100.3 | 96.1 | 79.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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