U.S. Durable Goods Orders Decline Sharply in November
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Total orders dragged lower by aircraft; excluding transportation, orders are little changed.
- Core capital goods orders improve.
- Unfilled orders & inventories rise.
New orders for durable goods declined 1.1% (-5.2% y/y) in November following a 0.8% October rise and a 0.4% September decline, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.3% decline. The decline reflected a 2.9% drop (-16.1% y/y) in orders for transportation equipment which reversed a 1.8% October increase. Orders outside the transportation sector slipped 0.1% (+1.5% y/y) after rising 0.2% in October. Defense orders fell 12.5% (+11.5% y/y) after a 2.9% decline. Nondefense orders eased 0.3% (-6.1% y/y) after a 1.0% rise.
The decline in transportation equipment orders reflected a 6.0% m/m fall in orders for aircraft & parts and a 0.3% easing (+1.6% y/y) in orders for motor vehicles & parts after a 0.5% slip. Orders for electrical equipment & appliances rose 0.4% (4.1% y/y) after a 1.6% gain in October. Orders for computers & electronic products fell 0.7% (+1.4% y/y) after slipping 0.4%. Showing strength, machinery orders increased 1.0% (1.7% y/y) last month following a 0.5% October rise. “Other durable goods” orders held steady (+0.4% y/y) after three straight months of modest increase. Orders for fabricated metal products declined 1.6% (+1.7% y/y) following a 0.2% rise while orders for primary metals improved 0.7% (1.8% y/y) after a 0.4% easing.
Nondefense capital goods orders declined 0.6% (-18.9% y/y) following a 3.1% October increase. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose 0.7% (1.1% y/y), after slipping 0.1% in October.
Shipments from all manufacturing industries rose 0.2% (1.3% y/y) in November after three consecutive monthly declines. Shipments of durable goods slipped 0.1% (+1.0% y/y), also following three monthly declines. Transportation shipments fell 1.2% (+1.1% y/y) while machinery shipments held steady (-0.1% y/y). Shipments in most other durable goods series were little changed. Shipments of nondurable goods rose 0.5% (1.6% y/y) in November after a 0.2% rise in October.
Unfilled durable goods orders increased 0.3% (2.0% y/y) in November, the fifth consecutive monthly rise. Unfilled orders for nondefense capital goods rose 0.6% for a second month (3.1% y/y) while nondefense capital goods order backlogs edged 0.1% higher (-1.2% y/y) and have fallen sharply since the end of 2022.
Inventories of all manufacturing industries rose 0.3% (0.5% y/y) in November after rising 0.1% in October. Durable goods inventories rose 0.4% (1.1% y/y) after little change earlier in the year while nondurable goods inventories rose 0.2% (-0.5% y/y) after easing for two consecutive months.
Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable and nondurable goods, along with unfilled orders and inventories, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. They are available in Haver’s USECON database. The Action Economics forecast data are in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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