Global| Feb 08 2008Economy Watchers to Very Deep Depths…
Summary
Japan’s Economy watchers Index and the Teikoku Indices show the weakest economic readings in five years. The economy watchers indices are down to values of around 30 to 36. And while they are the weakest we have seen in 5 years they [...]
Japan’s Economy watchers Index and the Teikoku Indices show
the weakest economic readings in five years. The economy watchers
indices are down to values of around 30 to 36. And while they are the
weakest we have seen in 5 years they are also approaching some of their
weakest readings ever. The future index is particularly grim. While the
OECD format (though Dec) shows the Japan trend restored LEIs as having
turned the corner and headed up, the economy watchers indices show the
economy still looking for a bottom. The Teikoku readings agree with the
economy watchers indices and see weakness right across the board that
was bad in December and got worse in January.
| Key Japanese surveys | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw readings of each survey | Percent of 5Yr range* | ||||||
| Diffusion | Jan-08 | Dec-07 | Nov-07 | Oct-07 | Jan-08 | Dec-07 | Nov-07 |
| Economy Watchers | 31.8 | 36.6 | 38.8 | 41.5 | 0.0% | 5.0% | 15.1% |
| Employment | 34.1 | 37.5 | 41.9 | 43.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 14.7% |
| Future | 35.8 | 37.0 | 38.8 | 43.1 | 0.0% | 1.5% | 10.6% |
| NTC MFG | 52.4 | 52.3 | 50.8 | 49.5 | 47.4% | 47.3% | 30.2% |
| Econ Trends (Teikoku'/50 neutral/weighted diffusion) | |||||||
| Manufacturing | 37.9 | 40.8 | 41.7 | 42.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.7% |
| Retail | 31.3 | 34.2 | 34.4 | 37.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wholesale | 34.5 | 37.0 | 38.3 | 39.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Services | 40.4 | 43.5 | 45.0 | 45.6 | 0.0% | 20.1% | 36.4% |
| Construction | 28.9 | 32.0 | 32.6 | 34.7 | 0.0% | 16.4% | 22.8% |
| 100 is high; Zero is low | |||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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