Global| Oct 16 2017Empire State Factory Sector Index Strengthens
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions for October rose to 30.2 following its slip to 24.4 during September. The latest level was the highest since September 2014 and continued to indicate expansion in [...]
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions for October rose to 30.2 following its slip to 24.4 during September. The latest level was the highest since September 2014 and continued to indicate expansion in factory sector activity. It surpassed expectations for 20.0 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These data, reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, reflect business conditions in New York, northern New Jersey and southern Connecticut.
Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates a seasonally adjusted index that is comparable to the ISM series. The adjusted figure eased to 55.6 from 57.3, but remained near its recent high. During the last ten years, the index posted a 63% correlation with the change in real GDP.
Movement amongst component series as mixed. The shipments series rose and nearly matched its expansion high, but most other series fell including new orders, unfilled orders, delivery times and inventories.
The employment index increased to the highest level in three years. During the last ten years, there has been a 69% correlation between the employment index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls. Twenty-three percent of respondents reported a higher payroll level while seven percent reported a decline. The employee workweek reading declined and matched the lowest reading since January.
The prices paid series eased after two months of increase. It nevertheless remained up sharply versus its 2015 low. Thirty-two percent of respondents indicated paying higher prices, while five percent reported them lower. The prices received index backpedaled m/m and has trended sideways this year.
Expectations of business conditions six months ahead rose slightly and reflected higher readings for new and unfilled orders, shipments, inventories and employment. Expected prices received also strengthened.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes, which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting declines from those reporting gains. The data are available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index dates back to 2001. The Action Economics Forecasts can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| Empire State Manufacturing Survey | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct'16 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %, SA) | 30.2 | 24.4 | 25.2 | -5.5 | -2.5 | -2.3 | 11.9 |
| General Business Conditions Index (ISM Adjusted, >50=Increasing Activity, SA) | 55.6 | 57.3 | 54.1 | 47.1 | 48.2 | 48.9 | 52.4 |
| New Orders | 18.0 | 24.9 | 20.6 | -3.1 | -0.7 | -5.6 | 7.9 |
| Shipments | 27.5 | 16.2 | 12.4 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 12.1 |
| Unfilled Orders | 2.3 | 8.9 | -4.7 | -10.4 | -8.8 | -10.5 | -9.0 |
| Delivery Time | 3.1 | 14.6 | 5.4 | -11.3 | -4.8 | -5.3 | -5.2 |
| Inventories | -7.8 | 6.5 | -3.1 | -12.3 | -9.6 | -7.1 | -1.8 |
| Number of Employees | 15.6 | 10.6 | 6.2 | -4.7 | -5.0 | 2.7 | 10.9 |
| Average Employee Workweek | 0.0 | 5.7 | 10.9 | -10.4 | -5.4 | -5.3 | 1.4 |
| Prices Paid | 27.3 | 35.8 | 31.0 | 22.6 | 15.7 | 8.8 | 20.9 |
| Expectations 6 Months Ahead | 44.8 | 39.3 | 45.2 | 35.3 | 29.0 | 30.3 | 40.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
