Global| Dec 05 2007EMU/EU Retail Sales Enthusiasm is Cut Short…
Summary
Retails sales trends in EMU/EU countries that seemed like they might have been acquiring some life have turned lower in October. As the first month in a new quarter, the October readings afford us an early look at the speed of sales [...]
Retails sales trends in EMU/EU countries that seemed like they
might have been acquiring some life have turned lower in October.
As the first month in a new quarter, the October readings
afford us an early look at the speed of sales in the new quarter. We
find that retail sales volumes are dropping at a 3.7% annual rate in Q4
in the EMU-13 area. Spending on food is up in the quarter at a 0.1%
annualized rate; nonfood items have volumes contracting at a pace of
-5.6%.
Sequential growth rates for nonfood and overall retail sales
have been showing clear deceleration.
In Germany sales are weakening fast. In the UK the slowing is
itself in slow-motion, but the deceleration is still clear to see.
The table below shows that momentum in retail sales volumes
has been fading. Europe is slipping regardless of the optimism there.
| Euro area 13 Retail Sales Volume | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct-07 | Sep-07 | Aug-07 | 3-Mo | 6-MO | 12-Mo | |
| Euro area 13 Total | -0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | -2.2% | -0.6% | 0.3% |
| Food | -0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.8% | -1.0% | 0.2% |
| Nonfood | -1.1% | 0.2% | -0.2% | -3.9% | -0.4% | 0.4% |
| Textiles | N/A | 1.9% | -0.3% | 10.9% | 7.2% | 8.2% |
| HH Goods | N/A | -1.2% | 0.5% | -0.8% | -0.3% | 0.9% |
| Books newspapers & others | N/A | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.8% | 0.7% | 1.6% |
| Pharmaceuticals | N/A | 0.6% | 0.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| Other nonspecial store sales | N/A | 0.7% | -0.6% | -0.3% | -0.8% | -0.1% |
| Mail Order | N/A | -0.1% | 0.0% | -2.3% | 3.7% | 3.2% |
| Nonfood Volume | ||||||
| Germany | -3.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | -11.8% | -8.3% | -4.0% |
| France | N/A | 0.5% | -0.4% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% |
| Italy (Total Value) | N/A | -0.5% | -0.1% | -2.6% | -2.9% | -2.2% |
| UK (EU) | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% |
| Shaded areas calculated on a one-month lag due to lagging data. | ||||||
| The EA 13 countries are Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain. | ||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
