Global| Jan 08 2008EMU Retail Sales Volumes Still Sinking in Q4
Summary
EMU retail sales volumes fell by 0.5% In November and are off at a 4.2% annualized rate in Q4. The figures show the Euro Area as a region that is still unsupported by consumer activity. While German manufacturing seems to be still [...]
EMU retail sales volumes fell by 0.5% In November and are off
at a 4.2% annualized rate in Q4. The figures show the Euro Area as a
region that is still unsupported by consumer activity. While German
manufacturing seems to be still healthy (see today’s orders report) the
consumer in Europe is floundering. Sales volumes are lower by 1% Yr/Yr
and are falling at a 0.2% pace over six months. Over three months the
annual rate of decline is 4.3%.
Nonfood sales are lagging the most down by 0.6% in the month
compared to a -0.4% drop for food. Yr/Yr declines for the two
categories of retail sales growth are similar, around -1%. Although the
Manufacturing data for the Euro Area have softened they show more
resilience. Still with the very strong euro and a very weak consumer it
is difficult to be too upbeat on the Euro Area’s prospects.
| Ezone (13) Retail Sales Volume | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov-07 | Oct-07 | Sep-07 | 3-Mo | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | |
| Zone-13 Total | -0.5% | -0.7% | 0.1% | -4.3% | -0.2% | -1.0% |
| Food | -0.4% | -0.5% | 0.2% | -2.6% | -1.0% | -0.9% |
| Non Food | -0.6% | -0.8% | 0.0% | -5.3% | 0.2% | -1.1% |
| Textiles | #N/A | -2.9% | 2.1% | -5.0% | -2.0% | 2.5% |
| HH Goods | #N/A | -0.4% | -1.3% | -4.8% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
| Books news, etc | #N/A | 0.1% | -0.5% | -2.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% |
| Pharmaceuticals | #N/A | 0.3% | 0.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% |
| Other Non Spec | #N/A | #N/A | 0.6% | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A |
| Mail Order | #N/A | #N/A | -0.1% | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A |
| Non-food Country Detail: Volume | ||||||
| Germany | #N/A | -3.2% | -0.1% | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A |
| France | -1.0% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 2.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% |
| Italy (Total: Value) | #N/A | 0.6% | -0.5% | -0.3% | -0.9% | -0.9% |
| UK (EU) | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 3.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% |
| Shaded areas calculated on a one-month lag due to lagging data | ||||||
| The EA 13 countries are Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia | ||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
