Global| Oct 03 2007European Retail Sales Remained Mixed, Weak in August but Solid in Q3
Summary
Retail volumes grew by just 0.1% in the Euro area 13 in August. This follows an upwardly-revised +0.4% in July. That is not an auspicious start to the quarter. However since Q2 ended on such a strong note, again of 0.6% that has sent [...]
Retail volumes grew by just 0.1% in the Euro area 13 in August. This follows an upwardly-revised +0.4% in July. That is not an auspicious start to the quarter. However since Q2 ended on such a strong note, again of 0.6% that has sent Q3 off on a relatively firm note so that the gains so far in the quarter have been helped by that momentum. As a result, quarter-to-date growth in EMU is strong. Sales volumes overall are expanding at a 3% pace with food expenditures up at a pace of 0.6%; nonfood spending is expanding at a pace of 4% all annualized at the two-month market in the new quarter.
Still the individual country results are disparate. For Germany, sales are up at just a 2.1% pace in the quarter; for the UK the pace is a very hefty 8.1%. French figures are not yet available but France has been tracking on the high side. Still for EMU as a whole the pace of retail sales seems to be slowing. What the EMU post for the quarter will still depend importantly on what consumers do in September.
| Euro Area 13 Retail Sales Volume | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug-07 | Jul-07 | Jun-07 | 3-Mo | 6-MO | 12-Mo | |
| Euro Area 13 Total | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Food | 0.2% | 0.3% | -0.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Nonfood | -0.1% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Textiles | #N/A | 0.8% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 5.6% | 4.9% |
| HH Goods | #N/A | 0.2% | 1.4% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 3.7% |
| Books news, etc | #N/A | 0.2% | 1.6% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.3% |
| Pharmaceutical | #N/A | 0.3% | 0.2% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.3% |
| Other Nonspecified | #N/A | -0.1% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| Mail order | #N/A | 0.9% | -0.1% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 1.6% |
| Nonfood Country Detail Volume | ||||||
| Germany | 0.9% | -0.5% | 3.0% | 14.5% | 2.1% | -2.7% |
| France | #N/A | 0.4% | 1.3% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% |
| Italy (Total; Value) | #N/A | -0.1% | 0.0% | -1.1% | -1.6% | -1.1% |
| UK (EU) | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% |
| Shaded areas calculated on a one-month lag due to lagging data | ||||||
| The EA 13 countries are Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain. | ||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
