Global| Feb 14 2002First Rise in Import Prices Since May '01
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Prices for imported commodities rose more than expected last month, led by a jump in oil prices. Updated seasonal factors altered past data slightly. Petroleum import prices rose for the first time in four months and erased the [...]
Prices for imported commodities rose more than expected last month, led by a jump in oil prices. Updated seasonal factors altered past data slightly.
Petroleum import prices rose for the first time in four months and erased the decline in December. Crude oil prices have since fallen in February.
Nonpetroleum import prices also rose, but just slightly. Prices of importedmotor vehicles and capital goods fell last month. Imported food prices rose sharply.
Export prices fell for the eleventh month in twelve.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA) | Jan '02 | Dec '01 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import - All Commodities | 0.4% | -0.9% | -8.6% | -3.5% | 6.5% | 0.9% |
| Petroleum | 6.0% | -5.8% | -31.5% | -17.1% | 66.5% | 34.2% |
| Nonpetroleum | 0.1% | -0.4% | -5.2% | -1.5% | 1.0% | -1.4% |
| Export - All Commodities | -0.1% | -0.3% | -2.8% | -0.8% | 1.6% | -1.3% |
by Tom Moeller February 14, 2002
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell as expected in the latest week. The prior week's level was little revised. It was the eighth week in ten that claims remained below 400,000
The four-week moving average of claims fell to 376,000.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose slightly in the latest week, and the decline in continuing claims has lagged the drop in initial claims.
The insured rate of unemployment was unchanged at 2.7% for the third consecutive week.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 02/09/02 | 02/02/02 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 373.0 | 381.0 | 8.4% | 408.0 | 302.8 | 297.7 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,429 | 40.3% | 3,031 | 2,127 | 2,187 |
by Tom Moeller February 14, 2002
Total business inventories fell as expected in December. The decline in November inventories was deepened due to a lowered estimate of manufacturing inventories.
Inventory liquidation during the last four months of 2001 (-10.8% AR) by far set a record for that length of time and it was double the rate that sales declined.
Retail inventories fell only in two categories, clothing and general merchandise stores. Furniture inventories rose for the third month in row.
Overall business sales were unchanged following the sharp November decline.
The inventory-to-sales ratio was stable at 1.39 for the third month in a row.
| Business Inventories | Dec '01 | Nov '01 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | -0.4% | -1.2% | -5.9% | -5.9% | 6.0% | 5.0% |
| Retail | -0.1% | -1.0% | -4.9% | -4.9% | 6.8% | 7.6% |
| Retail excl. Autos | -0.2% | -0.7% | -1.8% | -1.8% | 4.4% | 5.5% |
| Wholesale | -0.6% | -1.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% | 7.1% | 6.1% |
| Manufacturing | -0.6% | -1.3% | -7.2% | -7.2% | 4.6% | 2.3% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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