U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Fall Sharply in January
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Light truck purchases and auto sales decline together.
- Both domestic & import sales retreat.
- Imports' market share eases.
Weakness in the vehicle market hit with a vengeance last month. U.S. light vehicle sales declined 7.4% (+5.5% y/y) to 15.83 million units (SAAR) in January after rising 2.1% to a cycle high of 17.09 million in December. Sales fell to the lowest level since August. The decline in January vehicle sales accompanied a reduced 1.6% y/y rise in real disposable income through December which compared to 3.7% growth logged in 2023.
Sales weakness was broad-based. Light trucks fell 7.1% (+7.2% y/y) during January to 12.80 million units (SAAR) after rising 1.8% in December. Purchases of domestically-made light trucks were off 6.3% (+6.3% y/y) to 9.75 million units, after rising 0.9% in December. Sales of imported light trucks weakened 9.2% (+11.7% y/y) to 3.06 million units, following December’s 5.0% rise.
Trucks’ 80.9% share of the light vehicle market last month compared to 80.6% in December and 79.6% in January of last year. The share was 80.3% during all of 2024 and 53.3% ten years earlier.
Auto sales were also under pressure last month and posted an 8.5% decline (-1.3%) to 3.03 million units (SAAR) in January following a 3.1% December rise. Auto sales had been moving sideways since early 2023. Purchases of domestically-produced cars were off 9.1% (+4.8% y/y) last month to 2.19 million units after rising 2.1% in December. Sales of imported autos weakened 7.7% (-15.2% y/y) to 0.84 million units, reversing a 7.1% December increase.
Imports' share of the U.S. light vehicle market eased to 24.6% in January from 25.0% in December. It compared to a May 2023 low of 22.9% before it reached a high of 26.3% in November of 2023. Imports' share of the passenger car market rose to 27.7% last month from 27.5% in December. It reached a high of 38.7% in September 2021. Imports' share of the light truck market eased to 23.9% last month from 24.5% in December. The percentage has trended up since late 2021 when it was 21.3%.
U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the INDUSTRY database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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