Robert Brusca

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
    background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
    background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
<br>

<span id="articletext">
<p></p>
<p><img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070828f.jpg" width="353"></p>
<p>In France home construction is being stimulated by new tax rules. The new fiscal incentives allow home-buyers to deduct 40% of their mortgage interest payments from taxable income during the first year of contracts signed after May 6 and 20% during the four following years. This accounts for the jump in starts in May (up by 34.2% over April) and for April&#39;s nearly 30% drop from March as demand was depressed until after the new rule took effect. This incentive should allow developers to reduce stocks of unsold units built up in 1Q. The incentives will offset rising short- and long-term interest rates. Developers surveyed in July said buyers&#39; financing had improved recently and expected this trend to continue in the near term, according to the national statistics institute Insee. The outlook for housing starts, based on permits on hand, has stabilized after a marked erosion since the start of the year. The new rule seems to play a large role in the timing of activity in French housing so far this year.<br><br><br></p>
</span>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<b>French Housing Starts</b>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td><b>Jul-07</b></td>
<td><b>Jun-07</b></td>
<td><b>May-07</b></td>
<td><b>3-Mo</b></td>
<td><b>6-Mo</b></td>
<td><b>12-Mo</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><b>Starts</b></td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>34.3%</td>
<td>333.2%</td>
<td>66.4%</td>
<td>30.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><b>Permits</b></td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>-3.8%</td>
<td>11.6%</td>
<td>43.0%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="7"><b>3-Mo average</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><b>Starts</b></td>
<td>11.8%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>8.3%</td>
<td>112.7%</td>
<td>45.5%</td>
<td>15.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><b>Permits</b></td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>-6.2%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>-6.4%</td>
<td>11.5%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>


In France home construction is being stimulated by new tax rules. The new fiscal incentives allow home-buyers to deduct 40% of their mortgage interest payments from taxable income during the first year of contracts signed after May 6 [...]

French Housing Starts Jump

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

London

Singapore

Tokyo

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

Tom Moeller

250311X.jpg

250311Y.jpg

The number of job openings increased 232,000 (-8.6% y/y) to 7.74 million during January after declining 523,000 in December, revised from 556,000, and rising 416,000 in November, revised from 317,000, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The number of job openings has been trending downward since the peak of 12.134 million reached in March 2022. The job openings rate edged up to 4.6% from an unrevised 4.5% in December. The rate remains well below a high of 7.4% in March 2022. This rate is calculated as the ratio of job openings to total nonfarm employment plus openings. Data in this report was revised back to January 2020.

Private sector openings rose 226,000 (-9.5% y/y) in January to 6.86 million after declining 528,000 in December, revised from -548,000. The January increase reflected a 143,000 rise (15.9% y/y) in retail trade and a 58,000 increase (-21.7% y/y) in health care & social assistance. Construction (-42.0% y/y) and manufacturing (-16.9% y/y) openings both rose 31,000. Offsetting these gains, professional & business service openings declined 122,000 (-13.9% y/y) while leisure & hospitality job openings fell 46,000 (+1.5% y/y). Government job openings rose 6,000 (-1.2% y/y). The private sector job openings rate edged up to 4.8% in January from 4.7% in December. It remained below 5.4% twelve months earlier and 7.9% at its peak in March 2022.

Total hiring rose 19,000 (-3.2% y/y) to 5.393 million during January after a 67,000 December increase, revised from 89,000, following a 43,000 drop in November. Private sector hiring rose 18,000 (-3.2% y/y) after a 37,000 December increase and a 26,000 November fall. Professional & business services hiring rose 36,000 (-6.4% y/y) while retail trade jobs rose 26,000 (12.0% y/y). Factory sector hiring increased 32,000 (-13.5% y/y) while the number of construction jobs rose 26,000 (-5.1% y/y). Leisure & hospitality employment fell 50,000 (-12.1% y/y). Government hiring rose 2,000 (-3.6% y/y).

Total job separations rose 170,000 (-3.3% y/y) to 5.252 million in January after falling 5,000 in December, and sliding 198,000 in November. Quits rose 171,000 (-2.6% y/y) after rising 63,000 in December. Construction sector jumped 53,000 (21.2% y/y), professional & business services quits rose 30,000 (18.7% y/y) while leisure & hospitality gained 7,000 (-20.9% y/y). Layoffs & discharges declined 34,000 (-3.4% y/y), the fifth decline in the last six months. Other separations rose 32,000 (-8.9% y/y). Private layoffs fell 13,000 (-3.7% y/y) in January, reflecting a 29,000 decrease (+14.8% y/y) in retail trade. Leisure & hospitality layoffs declined 33,000 (+5.0% y/y). This was offset by a 62,000 rise (-23.7% y/y) in professional & business services layoffs. Layoffs in the government sector fell 21,000 (+4.2% y/y).

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

- Job openings rise during January 	following a lessened December decline.
- Increase is concentrated in retail trade & financial industries.
- Hiring improves but separations increase.

U.S. JOLTS: Openings & Hiring Improve in January

Winnie Tapasanun

250311T36.jpg

250311U36.jpg

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined to 100.7 in February, the lowest level since October, after a 2.3-point drop to 102.8 in January, according to the Small Business Economic Trends survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business. This was the fourth straight month that the index was above the 51-year average of 98. The index was down from its recent peak of 105.1 in December but up from its recent low of 88.5 in March 2024 and 89.4 in February 2024. Seven of the 10 index components fell and three increased. The NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index rose to 104 in February on top of a 14-point jump to 100 in January, registering the second highest reading on record. The index, while down from its record high of 110 in October, was well above its recent low of 65 in November 2023.

The outlook for business conditions in the next six months remained positive for the fourth consecutive month in the latest survey. The net balance of respondents expecting the economy to improve fell to 37% in February, the lowest level since November, after a 5-point drop to 47% in January; however, having remained significantly above a record low of -61% in June 2022. Expected real sales dropped to a net 14% in February after a 2-point decline to 20% in January, posting the fourth successive positive reading and the lowest since November. The latest figure was up from a low of -21% in May 2023 and a low of -29% in July 2022. A net -12% of respondents reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, up from -14% in January and registering the highest reading since June 2024. The latest result, however, was below the most recent positive reading of 1% in May 2022 and a peak of 9% in June 2021.

Plans to make capital outlays dipped to 19% in February, the lowest level since September, following a seven-point decline to 20% in January. These numbers were down from its recent high of 28% in November and a high of 31% in October 2021. Plans to expand the business fell to 12% in February, the lowest reading since October, after a three-point decline to 17% in January; the latest figure was down from its most recent high of  20% in December but up from a low of 2% in March 2023. Meanwhile, expected credit conditions edged up to -3% in February after a two-point decline to -4% in January; these readings were above a low of -11% in November 2023.

On the labor front, forty-eight percent of respondents reported that qualified workers to fill job openings were hard to find in February, slightly up from 47% in January. These numbers were below a high of 57% in September 2023, a high of 61% in May 2022, and a peak of 62% in September 2021. A net 15% planned to increase employment in February, down from 18% in January; it was below a high of 26% in May 2022 and a peak of 32% in August 2021. Notably, 38% reported positions not able to be filled in February, up from 35% in January and the highest reading since August; these figures remained below a high of 51% in May 2022.

Overall earnings trends had remained in negative territory since December 2019. The figure inched up to -24% in February, still a poor reading, following a one-point increase to -25% in January. These readings were up from a low of -37% in August; nevertheless, having remained below a high of -18% in March 2023 and a high of -5% in June 2021.

On the pricing front, inflation pressures, while trending down, remained at an inflationary level. The net percent of firms raising their average selling prices jumped 10 points to 32% in February after a two-point decline to 22% in January, posting the biggest m/m increase since April 2021 and the highest reading since May 2023. These numbers were up from 21% in February 2024 but well below a high of 66% in March 2022. The percentage planning to raise prices rose to 29% in February, the highest reading since March 2024, following a two-point decline to 26% in January; these figures were below a high of 33% in March 2024 and a high of 52% in March 2022.

Wage inflation remained relatively high in the February survey. A net 33% of respondents raised compensation during the last three months, unchanged from 33% reported in the January survey and registering the highest reading since August. It was down from a high of 46% in February 2023 and a peak of 50% in January 2022. A net 18% of firms planned to raise worker compensation in the next three months, down from 20% reported in January and the lowest reading since July 2024; these numbers were below a high of 28% in November, a high of 30% in November 2023, and a high of 32% in October 2022.

Inflation continued to be a problem facing small businesses, as reported by 16% of NFIB members in February. The February figure was down from 18% in January and a peak of 37% in July 2022. However, the quality of labor (19% in February vs. 18% in January) had taken over as the single most important problem facing small businesses. Other concerns (in February vs. January) included taxes (16% vs. 17%), the cost of labor (12% vs. 9%), poor sales (9% vs. 9%), insurance cost/availability (7% vs. 7%), competition from large businesses (7% vs. 5%), and government requirements (6% vs. 10%).

According to the Small Business Administration, there are 33 million small businesses in the United States, which employ 62 million workers. The NFIB surveys anywhere from 500 to 2000 respondents each month and the typical firm employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

250311V36.jpg

250311W36.jpg

- Feb. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index down 2.1 pts. to 100.7; second consecutive m/m decline following four straight m/m rises.
- Uncertainty Index up 4 pts. to 104, the second highest reading.
- Expectations for economy down 10 pts. to 37%, the lowest since November.
- Expected real sales down 6 pts. to 14%, a three-month low.
- Net percent of firms raising avg. selling prices up 10 pts. to 32%, the biggest m/m increase since Apr. ’21 and the highest reading since May '23.
- Quality of labor (19%) and inflation (16%) are top business concerns.

U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Recedes to a Four-Month Low in February Amid Uncertainty

250311C1.jpg

250311D1.jpg

Retail gasoline prices for all grades slipped to an average $3.20 per gallon (-8.4% y/y) last week after falling to $3.21 in the week ending March 3. Prices remained up from a low of $3.13 in the week of December 9. The recent high was $3.79 in the week ending April 22, 2024. Its all-time high of $5.11 occurred in the week ending June 13, 2022. The retail price for on-highway diesel fuel fell to $3.58 per gallon (-10.5% y/y) in the week of March 10 from $3.64 in the prior week. The latest diesel price stood well below a high of $4.63 in the week ending September 18, 2023 and a peak of $5.81 in the week ending June 20, 2022.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell to $67.27 per barrel (-15.0% y/y) in the week ended March 7, after falling to $69.67 per barrel in the prior week. Prices remained below a high of $91.45 in the week of September 29, 2023. The cost of crude oil peaked at $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $66.03 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil of $71.93 per barrel (-16.0% y/y) slumped in the week of March 7 compared to $74.25 in the prior week. Prices remained below a recent high of $95.61 in the week of September 29, 2023 and below a peak of $127.40 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $71.08 per barrel.

Natural gas prices recovered last week to an average $4.24 per mmbtu (173.5% y/y) in the week ended March 7 after plunging to $3.89/mmbtu in the prior week. Prices remained well above a low of $1.40/mmbtu in the week of March 15, 2024 but below their peak of $9.56 in the week of August 26, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $4.58 per mmbtu.

Gasoline demand rose 0.9% y/y in the four weeks ending February 28 following a 0.1% y/y decline in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products rose 3.4% y/y in the four weeks ending February 28 after a 4.2% y/y rise in the previous four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries rose 4.9% y/y in the four weeks ending February 28 after a 5.6% y/y increase in the prior four weeks.

Gasoline inventories rose 3.0% y/y in the week ending February 28 after a 1.7% y/y rise in the week ending February 21. Residual fuel oil inventories fell 16.3% y/y in the week of February 28, after an 18.0% y/y fall in the prior week. Crude oil inventories rose 2.4% y/y in the week of February 28 after a 2.2% y/y rise in the previous week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories fell to 28.9 days in the week of February 28. The recent low was 22.9 days in the week of November 8. The supply of crude oil rose to 28.0 days in the week of February 28 from 27.8 days in the prior week, up from 24.6 days in the week of January 10 but remained below a high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** & **USENERGY** database.

- Gasoline prices ease.
- Crude oil prices decline.
- Natural gas costs rebound.

U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed in Latest Week

250311E.jpg

Japan's GDP growth has picked up rising by 2.2% in the fourth quarter at an annual rate and rising 1.2% in the fourth quarter over the 4th quarter of one year ago. The 1.2% year-over-year growth rate in GDP is the strongest since the second quarter of 2023, six quarters ago. The chart showed that both measures- both the year-over-year and the annualized quarter-to-quarter results, for Japan's GDP are signaling an ongoing revival in growth after a more difficult period from mid-2023 to early-2024.

**Consumption-** Private consumption spending in Japan rose by only 0.1% quarter-to-quarter but it's rising by 1.1% year-over-year; the year-over-year gain was last stronger in the first quarter of 2023. Public consumption in Japan rose by 1.6% at an annualized quarter-to-quarter rate, at almost the same pace, at 1.7% in year-over-year terms. The 1.7% year-over-year pace is strong, the strongest since the first quarter of 2022, again, in terms of year-over-year public sector consumption spending.

**Fixed capital-** Gross fixed capital formation rose by 0.9% in the quarter at an annual rate, reversing a decline of the same magnitude one quarter ago. Capital spending generally has been higher than this in the preceding quarters.

**Plant & Equipment-** Spending on plant & equipment rose by 2.3% annualized in the quarter; its rise year-over-year in the fourth quarter is 1.2%. That 1.2% rise is one of the weaker increases recently. This is the weakest result in the last four-quarters in plant and equipment spending. While consumption seems to have come online, fixed investment and plant & equipment capital spending definitely are lagging behind the consumer sector.

**Housing-** Spending on housing fell by 0.8% at an annual rate in the fourth quarter compared to 1.8% annual rate gain in the third quarter. The Q4 year-over-year change in housing spending is -1.2%; for this particular series there are negative year-over-year numbers for the last four-quarters. However, the -1.2% year-over-year rate on the fourth quarter of 2024 is the ‘least weak’ of the last four quarters in terms of year-on-year growth rates, so there may be some signal of progress buried in these numbers on housing.

**International Sector-** The quarter-to-quarter change in Japan's real net export numbers move into positive territory in the fourth quarter after four previous quarters of negative numbers. Turning to year-over-year changes in Japanese net exports, they remain negative in the fourth quarter, the third consecutive negative year-over-year change in a row by quarter. However, it's the smallest negative change of the last three quarters so this period of net export deterioration may be coming to a close, which is what the strong quarter-to-quarter reading implies. Looked at separately, export growth has been slowing down; the annualized quarterly rate had logged a -15.5% annual rate in the first quarter of 2024 accelerated to 6.8% at an annualized quarterly rate in Q2, softened to a 6.1% annual rate gain in Q3 and now, in the fourth quarter, it logs an even weaker 4.1% annualized rate quarter-to-quarter. The year-over-year export growth figures turn negative in the fourth quarter to -0.1% and this is the first negative growth rate for exports year-over-year since the fourth quarter of 2020. On the import side, imports fall by 8.3% at an annual rate quarter-to-quarter after rising 8.1% at an annualized rate in the third quarter. Imports also fall by 0.1% year-over-year at end 2024; the last time import numbers were negative year-over-year was in the first quarter of 2024. So, this is not such a watershed for weakness. But weakness in imports suggests that GDP may not be doing as well as the aggregate number suggests because we'd expect with strong GDP to have stronger imports in place.

**Summing up-** In fact, the weak import numbers are in some way also inconsistent with domestic demand. Year-over-year domestic demand rises by 1.1%, a bit weaker than it posted in the third quarter of 2024, but still the number that is quite solid by recent experience. I’d expect to see either Japan’s imports pick up, or GDP to cool. Since GDP seems to be in an early acceleration phase, Japan is probably going to see imports step up.

250311.jpg

Japan

Japan’s GDP Posts Solid Results