Global| Jan 09 2008German IP Slows, While Orders Grow...an Accelerate
Summary
MFG output fell in November after a rise of 0.1% in October and a flat September. Amid other circumstances this might seem a very chilling set of numbers. With this weakness the Q4 path for IP two months into the quarter is a pace of [...]
MFG output fell in November after a rise of 0.1% in October
and a flat September. Amid other circumstances this might seem a very
chilling set of numbers. With this weakness the Q4 path for IP two
months into the quarter is a pace of just 1.2% at an annual rate. It is
only the sharp and mind blowing gains in orders that keep the erosion
in Manufacturing output from seeming like more of a problem. Certainly,
of the two measures, output is more important. But orders are a promise
of output to come. Unfortunately there have been sizeable disconnects
between orders and output before. Since mid-2006 the growth of orders
has exceed the growth of output in Germany and by a wide margin. The
current disconnect is even larger than what it generally has been over
the past 18 months.
| Total German IP | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saar except m/m | Nov-07 | Oct-07 | Sep-07 | 3-Mo | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | Quarter to-Date |
| IP total | -0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | -3.3% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| Consumer goods | -2.3% | -0.9% | 0.2% | -11.6% | -5.5% | 0.3% | -3.2% |
| Capital goods | -0.8% | 2.0% | -0.5% | 2.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 8.9% |
| Intermediate goods | -0.4% | -0.9% | 0.2% | -4.4% | 2.6% | 4.6% | -2.1% |
| Memo | |||||||
| Construction | -0.7% | -1.5% | 0.2% | -7.6% | -3.4% | -7.0% | -5.4% |
| MFG IP | -0.9% | 0.2% | -0.1% | -2.9% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 2.0% |
| MFG Orders | 3.4% | 4.0% | -1.6% | 25.4% | 13.7% | 13.6% | 27.9% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
More Economy in Brief
