Global| Dec 10 2007German IP Trends Caught in Cross Currents
Summary
German IP edged lower in October in the face of a spurt in orders for the month that was dominated by bulk orders. Still with the -0.3% October result German IP is entering the new quarter on an up note. Q/Q calculations are concerned [...]
German IP edged lower in October in the face of a spurt in
orders for the month that was dominated by bulk orders. Still with the
-0.3% October result German IP is entering the new quarter on an up
note. Q/Q calculations are concerned with comparing the average level
of IP in the current quarter to the average level in the previous
quarter. The spurt for IP in August and small the rise in September
still leave the level of IP in October, after its fall, above the Q3
average. IP is growing at annual rate of 2.6% entering Q4. Consumer
goods output is much weaker, up at just a 0.4% pace in Q4. As has been
the case capital goods output is up a strong 14.3% at an annual rate.
Intermediate output is off at a 2.2% pace. Ex construction, IP is
rising at nearly a nine percent annual rate.
So Germany continues to be a bit of a conundrum. The trends in
the chart show that no direction is really dominant. The sectors are
moving in different directions, too. We know the strong euro is
creating problems; we are unsure how many. Germany remain a bit of an
enigma.
| Total German IP | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saar exept m/m | Oct-07 | Sep-07 | Aug-07 | 3-mo | 6-mo | 12-mo |
| IP total | -0.3% | 0.1% | 1.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.9% |
| Consumer goods | -1.3% | 0.1% | 4.2% | 12.0% | 0.4% | 3.0% |
| Capital goods | 2.1% | -0.5% | 1.6% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 10.4% |
| Intermediary goods | -1.0% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 6.9% | 5.6% |
| Memo | ||||||
| Construction | 0.2% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 12.6% | 4.3% | -0.8% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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