Global| Nov 13 2007German Sales Trends Improving; But Still a Moderate Quarter
Summary
Spending patterns improved in September from August despite their downward revision. Sequential rates of growth find 3-month and 6-month rates of growth are generally improved form their respective year ago pace. Nominal auto sales [...]
Spending patterns improved in September from August despite their downward revision. Sequential rates of growth find 3-month and 6-month rates of growth are generally improved form their respective year ago pace. Nominal auto sales were especially strong in the quarter expanding at a growth rate of better than 20%. But excluding autos consumer spending is still very restrained. For the quarter real German retail sales excluding autos are up by just a rate of 0.7%. Nominal retail sales are up at a 1.6% pace in the quarter. Nominal food and tobacco sales are off by 0.9% in the quarter. Clothing and shoe sales are up by just 2.3%. The sequential growth rates show more pop than the quarterly growth rates do. Time will tell if the rebound is authentic or not.
| German Real and Nominal Retail Sales New QTR | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nominal | Sep-07 | Aug-07 | Jul-07 | 3-MO | 6-MO | 12-MO | YrAGo | New Qtr Saar |
| Retail Ex auto | 2.0% | -1.1% | 0.6% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 5.6% | 1.6% |
| MV and Parts | -2.4% | 4.3% | 0.8% | 10.7% | 12.8% | -2.5% | 15.2% | 21.8% |
| Food Beverages & Tobacco | 2.9% | -0.8% | -0.2% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 5.1% | -0.9% |
| Clothing footwear | 3.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 18.3% | 8.2% | 14.5% | 3.4% | 2.3% |
| Real | ||||||||
| Retail Ex auto | 1.6% | -1.5% | 0.8% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 5.1% | 0.7% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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