Global| Nov 08 2007German Trade Surplus Rises Strongly on Weak Imports
Summary
Imports fell by a sharp 2.6% as exports headed higher by 0.7% expanding the German trade surplus. Trends show that exports are still up strongly while imports are lagging with a 12.3% 3-month export growth rate matched against a 0.5% [...]
Imports fell by a sharp 2.6% as exports headed higher by 0.7%
expanding the German trade surplus. Trends show that exports are still
up strongly while imports are lagging with a 12.3% 3-month export
growth rate matched against a 0.5% pace for imports for that same
period. Over 6 and 12 months export growth continues to outdo imports.
Note that the detailed growth rates in the table are executed from one
month older data due to lagging observation availability. Germany
may seem to be escaping an adverse impact on GDP by seeing its trade
surplus widen but since the escape is due to weak imports, which may
themselves reflect a weakening economy, it is too soon to make that
judgment.
| German Trade in Goods Trends | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| m/m% | % Saar | ||||
| Sep-07 | Aug-07 | 3M | 6M | 12M | |
| Balance* | €€ 17.86 | €€ 15.57 | €€ 16.66 | €€ 16.40 | €€ 16.16 |
| EXPORTS | |||||
| All Exports | 0.7% | 2.4% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 5.4% |
| Capital Goods | -- | 2.1% | 16.6% | 7.5% | 10.9% |
| Motor Vehicles | -- | -0.5% | 16.4% | 8.9% | 12.6% |
| Consumer Goods | -- | 4.7% | 36.1% | 17.4% | 14.3% |
| IMPORTS | |||||
| All Imports | -2.6% | 4.5% | -0.5% | 5.7% | 1.4% |
| Capital Goods | -- | 9.2% | 39.2% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Motor Vehicles | -- | 16.7% | 50.6% | 34.5% | 18.8% |
| Consumer Goods | -- | 5.0% | 68.4% | 9.4% | 11.7% |
| *Billions of Euros; mo or period average; shaded area trends lag one month | |||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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