Global| Oct 10 2007Germany's DIHK Survey Points to Slowdown
Summary
Survey backs off and points to weaker conditions ahead The German chamber of commerce survey (DIHK) is still strong, make no bones about that. But the survey is now off peak and clearly pointing to softer conditions ahead.Business [...]
Survey backs off and points to weaker conditions ahead…
The German chamber of commerce survey (DIHK) is still strong, make no bones about that. But the survey is now off peak and clearly pointing to softer conditions ahead.Business expectations now sit at the lowest level among the respective percentiles of the components and that reading is still in the 83rdpercentile. The overall for economics conditions is in the 91stpercentile. The remaining indexes are all in their respective low 90s.
The chart on the left also looks at changes over one two and three years. (Survey reports three observations per year; plot on the chart is quarterly.) Economic conditions are up by 35 points over three years and 31 points over two years, so most of the rise has been in the last two years. In the current year the index is up by seven points compared to 31 points over two years. This is clear evidence that the rate of optimism is slowing down. The four point drop in the current quarter has not taken the year/year rise out of the series yet. The investment and hiring intention series show a similar slowing in the optimism in the past year after an outsized gain of the year before.
DIHK shows that while readings remain elevated, a slowing of some degree is in prospect.
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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