Global| Feb 15 2019Import Prices Continue Their Decline; Both Oil and Nonoil Prices Move Lower
Summary
Import prices fell a greater-than-expected 0.5% during January (-1.7% year-on-year) following a 1.0% drop in December. Prices were down 1.7% in November. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a flat reading for January. These [...]
Import prices fell a greater-than-expected 0.5% during January (-1.7% year-on-year) following a 1.0% drop in December. Prices were down 1.7% in November. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a flat reading for January. These figures are not seasonally adjusted.
The decline in import prices last month was led by a 0.7% drop (-0.4% y/y) in nonpetroleum import costs which followed a 0.3% rise. Petroleum import prices edged down 0.1% (-14.5 y/y) following double-digit decreases in the prior two months. Among end-use categories, industrial supplies & materials costs excluding petroleum fell 3.3% (-0.9% y/y). Capital goods prices ticked up 0.1% (-0.1% y/y). Motor vehicle & parts prices were down 0.2% (-0.4% y/y). Nonauto consumer goods prices declined 0.3% (+0.3% y/y).
Export prices decreased a greater-than expected 0.6% for the second consecutive month (-0.2% y/y). Forecasters' anticipated -0.3%. Agricultural commodities prices dropped 2.1% last month (+0.2% y/y) reversing some of December's 3.8% rise. Nonagricultural export costs declined 0.3% (-0.2% y/y), down for the third consecutive month. Food, feeds & beverage prices fell 2.1% (+0.7% y/y). While the Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that as a result of the government shutdown they did not have data from their usual source for Wheat, Soy and Corn, the Food and Agricultural categories were unaffected. The cost of industrial supplies & materials weakened 1.3% (-2.3% y/y). Capital goods prices rose 0.4% (1.4% y/y), while motor vehicle & parts prices edged up 0.1% (+0.4% y/y). Nonauto consumer goods prices declined 0.4% (-0.1% y/y).
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently published an interesting piece, The Perplexing Co-Movement of the Dollar and Oil Prices, which is available here.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | -0.5 | -1.0 | -1.7 | -1.7 | 3.2 | 2.9 | -3.3 |
| Petroleum & Petroleum Products | -0.1 | -10.7 | -15.1 | -14.5 | 22.4 | 26.6 | -19.7 |
| Nonpetroleum | -0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | -0.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | -1.5 |
| Exports - All Commodities | -0.6 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -0.2 | 3.4 | 2.4 | -3.2 |
| Agricultural | -2.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.5 | -5.4 |
| Nonagricultural | -0.3 | -1.1 | -1.0 | -0.2 | 3.7 | 2.5 | -3.0 |
Gerald D. Cohen
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Gerald Cohen provides strategic vision and leadership of the translational economic research and policy initiatives at the Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise.
He has worked in both the public and private sectors focusing on the intersection between financial markets and economic fundamentals. He was a Senior Economist at Haver Analytics from January 2019 to February 2021. During the Obama Administration Gerald was Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomic Analysis at the U.S. Department of Treasury where he helped formulate and evaluate the impact of policy proposals on the U.S. economy. Prior to Treasury, he co-managed a global macro fund at Ziff Brothers Investments.
Gerald holds a bachelor’s of science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University and is a contributing author to 30-Second Money as well as a co-author of Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy.
More Economy in Brief
