Global| Aug 07 2002Import Prices Rose Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Prices for imported commodities rose twice the Consensus expectation last month. June figures were revised up. Petroleum import prices reversed all of their June decline. So far in August, the price of Arab Light crude oil is up [...]
Prices for imported commodities rose twice the Consensus expectation last month. June figures were revised up.
Petroleum import prices reversed all of their June decline. So far in August, the price of Arab Light crude oil is up slightly to $23.26/bbl versus $23.09 in July.
Nonpetroleum import prices were unchanged and have risen 0.1% YTD.
Prices for imported capital goods fell a sharp 0.4% and are down 1.5% YTD. Nonauto consumer goods prices rose 0.1%, down 0.6% YTD and auto prices were unchanged, up 0.1% YTD.
Export prices rose following two months of no change, up 0.7% YTD. Food and industrial supplies prices have been strong but other export prices have been weak or lower.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA) | July | June | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import - All Commodities | 0.4% | -0.3% | -1.7% | -3.5% | 6.5% | 0.9% |
| Petroleum | 4.9% | -4.8% | 4.4% | -17.2% | 66.5% | 34.2% |
| Nonpetroleum | 0.0% | 0.1% | -1.5% | -1.5% | 1.0% | -1.4% |
| Export - All Commodities | 0.3% | 0.0% | -0.7% | -0.8% | 1.6% | -1.3% |
by Tom Moeller August 7, 2002
Consumer borrowing rose 0.5% in June, as expected. May figures were unrevised, up 0.6%. So far this year, consumer credit outstanding has risen at a 5.5% annual rate.
Revolving credit rose by a moderate 0.5% m/m. Year to date revolving credit has grown at a 4.5% annual rate.
Nonrevolving credit also rose 0.5%, 6.3% (AR) YTD.
| Consumer Credit Outstanding | June m/m | May m/m | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | $8.4B | $9.5B | 6.1% | 6.8% | 10.2% | 7.5% |
| Revolving | $3.8B | $2.4B | 2.7% | 4.9% | 11.5% | 6.3% |
| Nonrevolving | $4.5B | $7.1B | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.4% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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