U.S. Factory Orders Rebounded in January
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Factory orders increased 1.7% m/m in January after having declined in four of the previous five months.
- Durable goods orders jumped 3.2%, led by a 94% monthly rebound in nondefense aircraft orders.
- Shipments increased 0.4% m/m, their third consecutive monthly gain.
- Inventories edged up 0.1% m/m, their third consecutive monthly increase.
Total factory orders rebounded in January, rising 1.7% m/m (+3.2% y/y) after having declined in four of the previous five months. The 0.9% m/m decline previously reported for December was revised to -0.6%. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a 1.6% monthly gain in January. The January rebound in total orders was due entirely to a 93.9% resurgence in orders for nondefense aircraft. Excluding nondefense aircraft, remaining total orders were essentially unchanged in January following a 0.1% m/m gain in December.
Durable goods orders also rebounded in January, rising 3.2% m/m (+3.5% y/y) after falling 1.8% m/m in December and 2.0% m/m in November. However, the January rebound was more than accounted for by the jump in nondefense aircraft orders. Excluding those, remaining orders for durable goods fell 0.4% m/m on top of a 0.3% monthly decline in December. Of note, orders for computers and electronic products rose a solid 1.8% m/m on top of a 0.4% monthly rise in December. And orders for primary metals increased 1.4% m/m, more than reversing their 0.6% m/m decline in December. In contrast, orders for fabricated metals, for electrical equipment and appliances, and for machinery each declined in January from December.
Nondurable goods orders, which equal nondurable goods shipments, rose 0.3% m/m (+3.0% y/y) in January, their fourth consecutive monthly gain. Orders of petroleum products increased 0.9%; printing orders gained 0.4% m/m, their third consecutive monthly increase; leather product orders jumped 3.8% m/m. In contrast, orders for textile products slumped 2.7% m/m, reversing a 2.5% monthly gain in December. Apparel orders fell 3.3% m/m, their third monthly decline in the past four months.
Total shipments increase 0.4% m/m (+3.1% y/y) in January, their third consecutive monthly increase. Durable goods shipments rose 0.5% m/m (+3.2% y/y) in January on top of a 0.8% monthly gain in December. Shipments of transportation goods rose 1.4% m/m. Excluding those, non-transportation shipments gained 0.2% m/m, the same monthly gain as in December. Furniture shipments increased 1.6% m/m, more than reversing a 0.7% m/m decline in December. Shipments of primary metals gained 0.7% m/m in January. Shipments of computer and electronic products rose 0.4% m/m. In contrast, shipments of wood products fell 0.9% m/m; nonmetallic mineral products shipments slumped 1.4% m/m; machinery shipments fell 0.4% m/m, their fourth monthly decline in the past five months.
Unfilled orders increased 0.2% m/m (+0.7% y/y) in January. Total inventories edged up 0.1% m/m (+1.0% y/y) in January, their third consecutive monthly gain. Both durable goods inventories and nondurable goods inventories also rose 0.1% m/m in January.
The factory sector data are available in Haver’s USECON database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
Sandy Batten
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
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