Global| Sep 20 2007In the UK, CBI Orders are Fading Over All Major Horizons
Summary
The CBI survey presents its data in net balance form like the Philadelphia Fed survey and NFIB survey. Values above unity denote increases, below unity they show declines. The ratings are about the breadth of the trend rather that the [...]
The CBI survey presents its data in net balance form like the Philadelphia Fed survey and NFIB survey. Values above unity denote increases, below unity they show declines. The ratings are about the breadth of the trend rather that the strength, although strength is usually inferred from breadth. The reading this month shows that orders are still rising but that the breadth of the reading is diminishing. More broadly the chart on the left shows that the trend toward narrowing gains is in place over long and short horizons. Export orders are on the decline; we have previously seen weakening in German orders for July and in other EMU countries. Output for the moment is holding up and is not reflecting any of the weakness in order trends. Prices are still showing upward pressure with a net positive reading of 16 in the current month but that is barely changed since the 12-month average is +17. Still UK inflation data have been good and the prospects for inflation are considered excellent.
| Reported: | Sep-07 | Aug-07 | Jul-07 | Jun-07 | 12Mo Avg | Pcntle | Max | Min | Range |
| Total Orders | 6 | 9 | -6 | 8 | 0 | 94% | 9 | -40 | 49 |
| Export Orders | -2 | -3 | -8 | 0 | -4 | 91% | 3 | -50 | 53 |
| Stocks: Final Goods | 7 | 9 | 6 | -2 | 9 | 32% | 26 | -2 | 28 |
| Output Volume: Next 3M | 17 | 13 | 10 | 25 | 16 | 80% | 28 | -28 | 56 |
| Avg Prices 4 Next 3M | 16 | 16 | 11 | 16 | 17 | 84% | 25 | -30 | 55 |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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