Carol Stone, CBE

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<p><img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070308b.jpg" width="353"></p>
<p>Initial unemployment insurance claims fell 10,000 to 328,000 in the week ended March 3, basically reversing the prior week&#39;s 7,000 increase. The figure was marginally lower than Consensus expectations for a decline to 330,000 claims.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070308a.jpg" width="353"></p>
<p>Despite the drop in the latest week, the four-week moving average of initial claims rose to 339,000, the highest since the Katrina-inflated numbers in the autumn of 2005.</p>
<p>In the week of Feb 24, continuing claims fell 98,000 to 2.526 million after a rise of 118,000 the week before, which likely had been storm-related. This pulled the associated rate of insured unemployment back down to its recent 1.9% average from a one-week move to 2.0%.</p>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><b><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></b></th>
<th scope="col"><u><b>03/03/07</b></u></th>
<th scope="col"><u><b>02/24/07</b></u></th>
<th scope="col"><u><b>02/17/07</b></u></th>
<th scope="col"><b><u>2006</u></b></th>
<th scope="col"><u><b>2005</b></u></th>
<th scope="col"><b><u>2004</u></b></th>
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<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>328</td>
<td>338</td>
<td>331</td>
<td>313</td>
<td>332</td>
<td>343</td>
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<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,526</td>
<td>2,624</td>
<td>2,459</td>
<td>2,662</td>
<td>2,924</td>
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Initial unemployment insurance claims fell 10,000 to 328,000 in the week ended March 3, basically reversing the prior week's 7,000 increase. The figure was marginally lower than Consensus expectations for a decline to 330,000 claims. [...]

Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Hover Around 330K

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Sandy Batten

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New orders for durable goods rose 0.2% m/m (+2.7% y/y) in October, the first monthly gain in three months, following a 0.4% m/m decline in September and a 0.9% m/m drop in August, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.3% m/m increase last month. Transportation equipment orders rose 0.5% m/m (+5.2% y/y) in October, their first monthly increase in three months. Orders outside the transportation sector edged up 0.1% m/m in October, their third consecutive monthly increase. Defense orders fell 2.1% m/m (+12.7% y/y), their first monthly decline since March. Orders apart from defense increased 0.4% m/m in October, their first monthly increase in three months.

The 0.5% monthly gain in transportation equipment orders reflected a 10.2% m/m increase in orders for aircraft and parts following two consecutive monthly declines and a 0.4% m/m decline in orders for motor vehicles and parts, the fourth monthly decline in the past five months. Orders for electrical equipment and appliances rose 1.3% m/m in October, more than offsetting a 0.5% monthly decline in September. Machinery orders increased 0.3% m/m in October, their first monthly increase in four months. “Other durable goods” orders increased 0.3% m/m, their third consecutive monthly gain. Orders for fabricated metal products edged up 0.1% m/m in October, their fourth consecutive monthly rise. By contrast, orders for primary metals fell 0.7% m/m after increases in both August and September. And orders for computers and electronic products edged down 0.1% m/m, their first monthly decline in three months.

Core capital goods orders (nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft) slipped 0.2% m/m (+0.6% y/y) in October, their first monthly decline in three months. Core capital goods shipments, a reliable coincident indicator of business spending on equipment in the national accounts, increased 0.2% m/m (-0.6% y/y), their first monthly gain in four months.

Shipments from all manufacturing industries eased 0.2% m/m (+1.5% y/y) in October, their third consecutive monthly decline. Shipments of durable goods fell 0.6% m/m (+2.2% y/y) led by a 2.1% m/m drop in transportation shipments and a 0.5% m/m decline in machinery shipments. All other durable goods sectors posted monthly increases in shipments in October. Shipments of nondurable goods edged up 0.1% m/m (+0.9% y/y) in October, their first monthly increase in three months, led by a 0.4% monthly gain in petroleum shipments.

Unfilled durable goods orders increased 0.4% m/m (+3.3% y/y) in October, their fourth consecutive monthly gain. Of the major sectors, only unfilled machinery orders posted a monthly decline. They fell 0.3% m/m and have declined in every month since January 2023.

Inventories of all manufacturing industries edged down 0.1% m/m (+0.1% y/y) in October, the second consecutive monthly decline. Durable goods inventories were essentially unchanged (+0.7% y/y) while nondurable goods inventories fell 0.1% m/m (-0.9% y/y). Inventories of capital goods fell 0.3% m/m (+2.2% y/y).

Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable and nondurable goods, along with unfilled orders and inventories, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. They are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics forecast data are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Total orders increased 0.2% m/m after declines in both August and September.
- Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.1% m/m vs. 0.4% in September.
- Core capital goods orders fell 0.2% m/m, their first decline in three months.
- Core capital goods shipments increased 0.2% m/m, their first increase in four months.

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rebounded in October

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance eased by 2,000 in the week ended November 23 to 213,000 seasonally adjusted after 215,000 in the November 16 week; that earlier amount was revised from 213,00 reported a week ago. The week ended November 9 was 219,000. The latest week’s 213,000 is slightly lower than the Action Economics Forecast Survey which had expected the latest week to be 217,000.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries was 1.907 million in the week ended November 16, up somewhat from 1.898 million in the prior week. That earlier week was revised down 10,000 from the 1.908 million initially reported. This total number of beneficiaries is also known as “continuing claims.”

The insured unemployment rate, that is, the total number of beneficiaries as a percent of covered employment, was 1.3%, the same as the prior week. These two weeks follow 20 continuous months at 1.2%.

Economic conditions vary widely across areas of the country. The Labor Department reports that for the week ended November 9, the insured unemployment rate for New Jersey was 2.3%, in California and Washington State each 1.9%, Alaska 1.8%, Nevada and Rhode Island each 1.6% and Illinois, Massachusetts and New York each 1.5%. The lowest rates were in South Dakota and Georgia each 0.3%, Alabama, Florida, New Hampshire and Virginia each 0.4% and Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Dakota and Tennessee each 0.5%. These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Initial claims down slightly in last two weeks.
- Continued claims up moderately in mid-November.
- Insured unemployment rate again at 1.3% after 20 months at 1.2%.

U.S. Jobless Claims Ease 2,000 in November 23 Week

Tom Moeller

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The Conference Board's Index of Consumer Confidence rose 1.9% (10.6% y/y) to 111.7 during November following a 10.5% October rise, revised from 9.6%. The level of confidence has moved up from a low of 97.5 in April to the highest level since July of last year. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 112.0 in November. Consumer confidence has been fluctuating between 97.5 and 114.0 over the past two years.

Both components of the index rose this month. The present situation index increased 3.5% (3.2% y/y) to 140.9 after surging 9.9% in October to 136.1. The expectations index improved 0.4% (19.3% y/y) in November to 92.3 after rising 11.0% in October.

The percentage of respondents assessing business conditions as “good” eased to 21.3% this month after rising to 22.0% in October. It remained near the highest percentage in fifteen months. The percentage assessing conditions as “bad” eased to 15.3% from 16.7% in October.

The appraisal of labor market conditions slipped in November as 33.4% of respondents thought jobs were plentiful, down from 34.1% in October. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 15.2% of respondents this month following 17.6% in October. This measure has risen steadily this year from 11.0% in January. The labor market differential calculated by Haver Analytics (the percentage of consumers who think jobs are plentiful minus the percentage who believe that jobs are currently hard to get) rose m/m to 18.2%, but remained below a high of 47.1% in March 2022. This series has a 60% correlation with the unemployment rate over the last ten years.

Expectations for business conditions surged in November. A higher 23.5% of respondents expect conditions to improve over the next six months, up from 21.1% in October, while a higher 15.2% expect them to worsen, up from 13.0% in October. On employment, 21.7% expect the number of jobs to increase over the next six months, the highest percentage in roughly two years and notably higher than last month’s 18.4%. A somewhat larger 17.8% respondents expect the number of jobs to decline versus 16.2% in October. A lessened 19.0% expect income to increase in six months versus 19.5% in October. That remained up from 16.3% in February and compares to 11.8% who expect income to decrease.

The expected rate of price inflation over the next twelve months fell to 4.9% in November from 5.2% in October. This was the lowest since March 2020. Interest rates are expected to rise over the year but the percentage expecting an increase fell to 43.6% from 47.2% in October. The percentage of respondents expecting equity prices to increase over the next twelve months increased to 56.4% from 51.9% in October, while the percentage expecting a decline eased to 21.3% from 22.3%.

The percentage of respondents planning to buy a home in November fell to 5.4%, its lowest in three months, from 6.1% in October. Plans to purchase an automobile edged down this month to 12.6% from 13.1% in October.

The Consumer Confidence data are available in Haver’s **CBDB** database. The total indexes, which are indexed to 1985=100, appear in **USECON**, and market expectations are in **AS1REPNA**.

The minutes to the latest **FOMC** meeting can be found [here.](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20241107.pdf)

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- Confidence improves to highest level since July 2023.
- Both present situation & expectations measures increase.
- Inflation & interest rate expectations decline.

Consumer Confidence Improves in November; Inflation Expectations Fall

Winnie Tapasanun

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New single-family home sales plunged 17.3% m/m (-9.4% y/y) to 610,000 units at an annual rate in October following a 7.0% gain to 738,000 in September (+4.1%, 738,000 initially) and a 2.4% drop to 690,000 in August (-2.3%, 709,000 previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The October level reading was the lowest since November 2022. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected new home sales of 723,000 for October. New home sales, while up 17.5% from the 519,000 low in July 2022, had fallen 40.8% from their peak of 1.031 million in October 2020. The plunge in October sales accompanied a rise in the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to 6.43% in October from 6.18% in September. It had since risen to 6.84% in the November 21 week, according to Freddie Mac.

By region, month-on-month new home sales fell in October in two of four major regions. Sales in the South slumped 27.7% (-19.7% y/y) to 339,000 in October, the first m/m drop since July to the lowest level since April 2020, after a 7.6% rise to 469,000 in September. Sales in the West fell 9.0% (-1.3% y/y) to 152,000, the second m/m fall in three months to the lowest level since May, following a 5.0% September increase to 167,000. To the upside, sales in the Northeast jumped 53.3% (35.3% y/y) to 46,000 in October, the fourth m/m advance in five months to the highest level since January, after a 42.9% rebound to 30,000 in September. Sales in the Midwest rose 1.4% (15.9% y/y) to 73,000, the first m/m rise since July, after a 2.7% September decline to 72,000. Notably, despite the October m/m slump in the South, the region still posted the largest level figure (339,000) for new home sales among the four regions.

The median sales price of a new home rose 2.5% (4.7% y/y) to $437,300 in October after a 5.2% rebound to $426,800 in September, registering the third m/m rise in four months to the highest level since August 2023. The median sales price, however, had fallen 5.0% since its October 2022 peak of $460,300. The average sales price of a new home advanced 7.0% (9.4% y/y) to a record-high $545,800 in October, up for the third month in four, on top of a 6.9% September gain to $509,900. The average price was 0.8% above a high of $541,200 in July 2022. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.

The number of unsold new homes on the market rose 2.1% (8.8% y/y) to 481,000 in October, the highest level since January 2008, after holding steady m/m at 471,000 in September. The latest figure was 3.2% above a high of 466,000 in October 2022. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale rose to 9.5 months in October, the highest since October 2022, after falling to 7.7 months in September. It was up from 7.9 months in October 2023 and a low of 6.9 months in May 2023.

The median number of months a new home stayed on the market increased to 2.6 months in October, the highest since March, after rising to 2.5 months in September. The latest reading was up from 2.5 months in October 2023 and the record low of 1.5 months in both September and October of 2022 but down from a high of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.

New home sales are recorded when the sales contract is signed. New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- October sales -17.3% m/m (-9.4% y/y) to 610,000, the second m/m drop in three mths.; Sept. level number unrevised at 738,000.
- Sales down m/m and y/y in the South and West but up m/m and y/y in the Northeast and Midwest.  
- Median sales price rises to $437,300, the highest since August ’23; average sales price jumps to a record-high $545,800.
- Months' supply of new homes for sale rises to 9.5 months, a two-year high.

U.S. New Home Sales Plunge in October; Lowest Level Since November ’22