Global| Sep 01 2004ISM Factory Index Fell About As Expected
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Purchasing Managers Composite Index (PMI), released by the Institute of Supply Management, fell to 59.0 last month. The decline from 62.0 in July was about in line with Consensus expectations for a reading of 60.0. During the [...]
The Purchasing Managers’ Composite Index (PMI), released by the Institute of Supply Management, fell to 59.0 last month. The decline from 62.0 in July was about in line with Consensus expectations for a reading of 60.0.
During the last twenty years there has been a 70% correlation between the level of the Composite Index and the three month growth in factory sector industrial production.
Each of the Composite Index components declined m/m with the exception of inventories, up slightly to 51.7. The decline in new orders (61.2) was paced by a sharp decline in the export orders index to the lowest level since last September .
The employment index (55.7) still suggested growth in factory sector hiring but at the slowest rate since January.
The prices paid index recovered all of the prior month's decline.
| ISM Manufacturing Survey | Aug | July | Aug '03 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Index | 59.0 | 62.0 | 55.0 | 53.3 | 52.4 | 43.9 |
| New Orders Index | 61.2 | 64.7 | 60.4 | 58.1 | 56.6 | 46.1 |
| Prices Paid Index (NSA) | 81.5 | 77.0 | 53.0 | 59.6 | 57.6 | 42.9 |
by Tom Moeller September 1, 2004
The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association fell a slight 0.6% last week. For the month of August total applications are 1.6% higher versus July.
Purchase applications slipped 0.1% last week and so far this month are 2.8% below July.
During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.
Applications to refinance mortgages fell 1.1% but in August are 8.8% ahead of July.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-Year mortgage fell slightly to 6.02%. That is down from 6.24% averaged last month and the high of 6.53% in May. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage also fell to 5.44%.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site here.
| MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100) | 08/27/04 | 08/20/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | 642.7 | 646.3 | 2.2% | 1,067.9 | 799.7 | 625.6 |
| Purchase | 443.1 | 443.7 | 11.9% | 395.1 | 354.7 | 304.9 |
| Refinancing | 1,804.1 | 1,824.9 | -9.0% | 4,981.8 | 3,388.0 | 2,491.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
