Global| Dec 12 2007Japan’s Exports Continue to Outpace Imports
Summary
Japans exports and imports each show generally declining trends. Imports are up by just 4.4% year/year while exports are advancing at a pace of 11.4%. Japan’s services deficit is shrinking. Its good surplus and current account surplus [...]
Japans exports and imports each show generally declining trends. Imports are up by just 4.4% year/year while exports are advancing at a pace of 11.4%. Japan’s services deficit is shrinking. Its good surplus and current account surplus are each widening. The current account surplus is widening in both dollar and yen terms (see table).
Recent macroeconomic data make it clear that Japan’s economy
is slowing. This is reflected in the import slowing that is in
progress. Japan’s imports fell by a sharp 6.3% in August then by 0.1%
in September before rebounding with a rise of 0.8% in October. Import
weakness is likely a reflection of the weakness in domestic demand.
| Japan Current Account Trends | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In period level of % change | Average in period/or % change | ||||||
| Oct-07 | Sep-07 | Aug-07 | 3-Mo | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | 12-Mo Prev | |
| Current Account in $, Millions | $ 22,135 | $ 19,489 | $ 18,789 | $ 20,138 | $ 18,303 | $ 17,425 | $ 14,049 |
| In Yen, 100 Millions | |||||||
| Overall Balance | 25,648 | 22,420 | 21,932 | 23,333 | 21,680 | 20,641 | 16,375 |
| Services Balance | (365) | (1,546) | (2,286) | (1,399) | (1,790) | (1,929) | (1,789) |
| Balance on Goods | 13,141 | 10,704 | 14,404 | 12,750 | 10,877 | 10,651 | 7,471 |
| % m/m | % SAAR | ||||||
| Export Goods % | 4.4% | -5.4% | 3.4% | 8.1% | 16.0% | 11.8% | 24.4% |
| Import Goods % | 0.8% | -0.1% | -6.3% | -18.8% | 10.9% | 4.4% | 16.4% |
| Prices in %, SAAR | |||||||
| Export Prices | 0.8% | -0.7% | -3.2% | -16.7% | -1.5% | -0.1% | 4.7% |
| Import Prices | 4.4% | -1.4% | -2.5% | -2.1% | 11.1% | 7.5% | 20.5% |
| Memo: Yen/$, AVG, Level | 115.87 | 115.04 | 116.73 | 115.88 | 118.75 | 118.69 | 116.54 |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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