Global| May 25 2017Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Suggests Moderate Growth
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity stood at eight in May, following an unrevised decline to seven in April. It remained down sharply from the March [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity stood at eight in May, following an unrevised decline to seven in April. It remained down sharply from the March reading of 20. Movement amongst the index components was mixed. New orders, employment, supplier delivery times and the workweek each moved slightly higher. These gains were offset by lower readings for shipments and production.
The index of finished goods prices also improved modestly, but has trended sideways this year. The raw materials prices index declined, however, to the lowest level in six months.
The overall expectations index recovered most of its April decline. Expected shipments, orders, delivery times and production rose sharply. Export orders, the employee workweek and capital expenditures also increased. Employment expectations declined, however, to the lowest level since December.
Expectations for finished goods prices also declined to the lowest point in three months and expected raw material prices declined to the lowest level since December.
The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of total respondents reporting increases minus the percentage reporting declines. The survey included 94 responses from plants in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming and northern New Mexico. Data for the Kansas City Fed Survey can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Kansas City Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey (SA) | May | Apr | Mar | May '16 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conditions Versus One Month Ago (% Balance) | 8 | 7 | 20 | -4 | -2 | -6 | 6 |
| New Orders Volume | 9 | 8 | 32 | -1 | -1 | -8 | 7 |
| Number of Employees | 11 | 9 | 13 | -10 | -6 | -10 | 5 |
| Production | -1 | 12 | 37 | -7 | 1 | -5 | 7 |
| Prices Received for Finished Product | 8 | 5 | 9 | -8 | -7 | -5 | 5 |
| Expected Conditions in Six Months | 30 | 17 | 32 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 17 |
| New Orders Volume | 46 | 15 | 43 | 16 | 19 | 11 | 26 |
| Number of Employees | 24 | 26 | 43 | -3 | 8 | 6 | 18 |
| Production | 50 | 28 | 51 | 17 | 20 | 11 | 28 |
| Prices Received for Finished Product | 23 | 24 | 27 | -1 | 6 | 9 | 26 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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