Global| Dec 22 2005Leading Economic Indicators Up Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators from the Conference Board increased 0.5% following an upwardly revised 1.0% gain in October. It was the third increase in the last five months and beat Consensus expectations for a [...]
The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators from the Conference Board increased 0.5% following an upwardly revised 1.0% gain in October. It was the third increase in the last five months and beat Consensus expectations for a 0.4% rise.
The breadth of one month gain amongst the 10 components of the leading index remained firm at 70% as higher stock prices, a higher money supply, higher consumer confidence and fewer claims for unemployment insurance offset negative influences from lower capital goods orders and easier vendor performance.
The method of calculating the contribution to the index from the interest rate yield spread has been revised. A negative contribution will now occur only when the spread inverts rather than when declining as in the past. More details can be found here.
The leading index is based on eight previously reported economic data series. Two series, orders for consumer goods and orders for capital goods, are estimated.
The coincident indicators rose 0.2% following an upwardly revised 0.2% October gain. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the change in the coincident indicators and real GDP.
The lagging indicators rose 0.6% for the second month of strong gain led by higher C&I loans, a higher services CPI growth rate, a longer unemployment duration and higher interest rates. The ratio of coincident to lagging indicators, a measure of actual economic performance versus excess, fell for the eighth month this year to its lowest level since August 2003.
Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
| Business Cycle Indicators | Nov | Oct | 6 Month Chg., AR | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading | 0.5% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% |
| Coincident | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 0.4% | -0.6% |
| Lagging | 0.6% | 0.7% | 3.4% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.7% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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