Global| Sep 30 2013MNI Chicago Index Shows Factory Sector Improvement
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The MNI Chicago Report business barometer improved this month to 55.7, its highest level since May. Expectations were for 54.0. Haver Analytics constructs a seasonally adjusted figure comparable to the MNI Barometer and it rose to [...]
The MNI Chicago Report business barometer improved this month to 55.7, its highest level since May. Expectations were for 54.0. Haver Analytics constructs a seasonally adjusted figure comparable to the MNI Barometer and it rose to 54.0, also its highest level since May. During the last ten years there has been an 66% correlation between the adjusted Chicago index the quarterly change in real GDP.
Improvement in the components during September was led by production, new orders and a slower pace of vendor deliveries. Working the other way, the employment index fell to its lowest level since April. During the last ten years there has been an 80% correlation between the employment index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
Pricing power also deteriorated as the prices index reversed its increases of the prior two months. During the last ten years there has been a 67% correlation between the prices paid index and three-month growth in the intermediate goods PPI.
The survey panel consists of 200 manufacturing purchasing professionals in the Chicago area. The MNI figures are copyrighted by the MNI Chicago Report in partnership with the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago. The figures from the survey can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Consensus expectations figure is available in AS1REPNA.
| MNI Chicago Report (Diff. Index, 50=No Chg.) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep'12 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM-Adjusted Business Barometer | 54.0 | 52.2 | 50.6 | 52.5 | 54.8 | 61.3 | 59.0 |
| Business Barometer | 55.7 | 53.0 | 52.3 | 50.9 | 54.6 | 62.7 | 61.3 |
| New Orders | 58.9 | 57.2 | 53.9 | 49.3 | 55.1 | 65.3 | 63.4 |
| Production | 58.0 | 53.0 | 53.6 | 56.1 | 57.5 | 66.5 | 65.0 |
| Order Backlogs | 46.7 | 46.5 | 42.9 | 44.2 | 48.0 | 55.5 | 54.5 |
| Deliveries | 53.7 | 50.8 | 51.0 | 53.3 | 54.8 | 60.0 | 61.0 |
| Inventories | 46.0 | 45.0 | 37.7 | 50.6 | 51.4 | 55.2 | 50.5 |
| Employment | 53.2 | 54.9 | 56.6 | 53.1 | 55.3 | 59.4 | 55.2 |
| Prices Paid | 57.1 | 65.2 | 63.6 | 63.6 | 62.2 | 72.4 | 65.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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