Global| Aug 09 2002Nonfarm Productivity Firm
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Nonfarm labor productivity grew more than expected last quarter. Consensus estimates were for a 0.8% rate of growth. Revisions to productivity left 1Q02 growth unchanged at 8.6% but 2001 growth was lowered to 1.1% from 1.8%. Growth in [...]
Nonfarm labor productivity grew more than expected last quarter. Consensus estimates were for a 0.8% rate of growth.
Revisions to productivity left 1Q02 growth unchanged at 8.6% but 2001 growth was lowered to 1.1% from 1.8%. Growth in 2000 was lowered to 2.9% from 3.3%.
Output in the nonfarm business sector rose 0.5% (AR) following a 6.2% gain in 1Q02. Hours worked fell 0.7%, the eighth decline in the last nine quarters.
Unit Labor costs rose 2.4% following three consecutive quarters of decline. Compensation growth held steady at its 1Q02 rate, but that's up sharply from the quarterly rates of growth last year.
Manufacturing sector productivity grew at a 4.9% rate following a 9.7% surge in 1Q02. Unit labor costs fell at a 1.8% rate, the fourth consecutive quarterly decline.
Inflation pressure rose. The price deflator for the nonfarm business sector rose 1.4% following two consecutive quarters of decline.
The price-to-unit labor cost ratio, a key measure of corporate profitability, fell slightly following four quarters of gain.
| Nonfarm Business Sector (SAAR) | 2Q '02 | 1Q '02 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Output per Hour | 1.1% | 8.6% | 4.7% | 1.1% | 2.9% | 2.4% |
| Compensation | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 7.0% | 4.4% |
| Unit Labor Costs | 2.4% | -4.6% | -2.2% | 1.6% | 3.9% | 2.0% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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