Global| Dec 10 2007OECD LEIs Are Sagging
Summary
The MAIN OECD LEIs (leading economic Indicators, trend adjusted) are dropping at a faster pace over the recent three months. Japan’s drop is the sharpest. The OECD itself pushes emphasis on the 6-month changes in these indexes. On [...]
The MAIN OECD LEIs (leading economic Indicators, trend
adjusted) are dropping at a faster pace over the recent three months.
Japan’s drop is the sharpest. The OECD itself pushes emphasis on the
6-month changes in these indexes. On that basis the OECD, the OECD main
seven OECD Europe, Japan and the US all are declining. The US move is
the least negative. Japan’s is the most. Europe's slide is a bit less
than for the OECD overall.
Still the message from these OECD LEIs is very clear. The area
is slowing. The OECD itself flags Japan as a worrisome case and talks
of moderate slowing elsewhere. Clearly financial markets and central
bank events can have an influence on events in these various countries
and regions. The outlook remains in flux since these indicators have
worsened since last month.
| OECD Leading Indicators by Main regions/countries | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct-07 | Sep-07 | Aug-07 | 3-Mo | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | |
| OECD | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.7% | -5.1% | -2.0% | -0.1% |
| OECD Big 7 | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.8% | -7.0% | -2.9% | -1.5% |
| OECD Europe | 0.0% | -0.3% | -0.5% | -3.1% | -1.5% | -0.8% |
| OECD Japan | -1.4% | -1.2% | -1.6% | -15.7% | -11.5% | -11.7% |
| OECD US | -0.5% | -0.4% | -0.7% | -6.0% | -0.7% | 1.6% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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