Global| Feb 01 2010Russian GDP Declined 7.9% In 2009
Summary
Russia announced today that real GDP declined 7.9% in 2009, somewhat less than the 8.5% the government had estimated earlier, but still the deepest decline among the BRIC countries--Brazil, Russia, India and China as can be seen in [...]
Russia
announced today that real GDP declined 7.9% in 2009, somewhat less than
the 8.5% the government had estimated earlier, but still the deepest
decline among the BRIC countries--Brazil, Russia, India and China as
can be seen in the first chart.
Russia's dependence on oil
was largely responsible for its poor performance. As shown in
the second chart, the price of Urals crude oil fell almost 75% from its
peak of $140.80 a barrel in July 2008 to $35.56 at year
end. By now the price of oil, at $73 a barrel, has
more
than doubled the low point. The annual decline of 7.9%
in GDP implies a significant improvement in the fourth quarter year to
year decline. While there may be revisions in the earlier
data when the actual fourth quarter result is released, an estimate of
the fourth quarter can be derived by subtracting the unseasonally
adjusted published quarterly data for the first three quarters from the
annual total. The implied figure for the fourth quarter, not
shown on the chart, but shown in the table below, is 2.6% below the
year ago figure, a significant improvement over the declines of 9-10%
in the first three quarters.
| Q4 09 | Q3 09 | Q2 09 | Q1 09 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP (Billions, Chained 2003 Rubles) | 4756.2* | 4570.6 | 4014.6 | 3736.3 | 17077.7 | 18552.5 | 17570.9 | 16255.5 |
| Y/Y Pct Change | -2.6* | -8.9 | -10.9 | -9.8 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 8.1 | 7.7 |
| * Computed: Reported annual total minus reported quarterly totals for first three quarters. | ||||||||
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