Global| Oct 30 2019State Coincident Indexes
Summary
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's estimates of state coincident activity for September were rather comparable to August's initial estimates, though fewer states appear to be growing very rapidly. Over the last 12 months, 32 [...]
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's estimates of state coincident activity for September were rather comparable to August's initial estimates, though fewer states appear to be growing very rapidly. Over the last 12 months, 32 states show increases in their index in the 2 to 4 percent range—up slightly from the initial August count of 29 in that range. Only 3 states report growth above 4 percent (Utah, Nevada, and Alabama),compared to 7 in that first August report. Michigan was again the only state to see a 12-month decline in its index. Growth appears to have been a bit more uniform across the nation; four Eastern states were in the top ten (Vermont, Maine, and Massachusetts joining Alabama in that group). Once again, states in the middle of the nation tended to report weaker group; New York, however, with a modest 1.5 percent gain was also toward the low end.
Over the three months ending in September, 18 states had gains of less than .5 percent, with 7 declines, with, as was the case in August, Kentucky reporting the largest decline. 11 states had gains of 1 percent or more, scattered across the nation and including Florida and California. Alabama had far and away the largest gain, at 2 percent, perhaps in some connection with the start of the college football season!
South Carolina had the largest index gain from August to September (a good sign for Clemson?); 8 states report declines, with the largest in North Dakota—the next two weakest states were also small energy producers (West Virginia and Wyoming).
Once again, the Philadelphia indexes show fewer instances of very rapid growth, and scattered signs of softness. Three of the four largest states continue to grow strongly (California's 12-month gain was 3.3 percent), but New York has been soft.
Charles Steindel
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.
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