Global| Dec 21 2018State Labor Markets in November
Summary
Reflecting the somewhat softer tone of the national report, only four states were considered to have statistically significant changes (all increases) in payroll employment in November: California, Florida, Wisconsin, and South [...]
Reflecting the somewhat softer tone of the national report, only four states were considered to have statistically significant changes (all increases) in payroll employment in November: California, Florida, Wisconsin, and South Dakota. The other 46 states (and DC) had statistically insignificant gains and losses (only in Texas would a 14,000 job gain be seen as “insignificant,” but putting that change in the context of a job base of nearly 13 million shows why that is the case).
Once again, the 12-month changes show job growth is converging across the nation. Only 3 states saw job gains above 3% in that period led by Nevada’s 3.8%. There does appear to be a somewhat greater tendency toward softness; 10 states (including DC in this group) had job gains under 1.0%, with two (Vermont and Alaska) experiencing declines. The range of unemployment rates has continued to narrow; with Alaska (the high state) edging down to 6.3% and Hawaii up a notch to 2.4% (Hawaii is now tied with Iowa for the lowest rate). West Virginia, Louisiana, and DC report rates above 5%, while Idaho, North Dakota, Minnesota, Nebraska, Vermont, Virginia, and New Hampshire join Hawaii and Iowa with rates under 3%. Note that Virginia (and arguably Minnesota) is the only larger state with an unemployment rate that looks like a notable outlier.
Puerto Rico’s labor market remains bleak. Nonfarm employment fell by 3,100 in November, though the level was 1% higher than the year-earlier figure (which was in the near-aftermath of Maria). The unemployment rate looks reasonably good, falling from 8.0% to 7.7%, which is a remarkably low figure for Puerto Rico. However, this decline, like the comparable one in October, reflects another sharp drop in the island’s labor force which, according to the data, has fallen an astonishing 1.7% over the last two months.
Charles Steindel
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.
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