Global| Jan 21 2021TT
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• • • PREVIOUS>>>>The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index has fallen to 11.1 in December from 26.3 in November. The survey panel consists of 150 manufacturing [...]
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PREVIOUS>>>>The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index has fallen to 11.1 in December from 26.3 in November.
The survey panel consists of 150 manufacturing companies in the third Federal Reserve District (which consists of southeastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware). The diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease in activity. The ISM-adjusted figure, calculated by Haver Analytics, is the average of five diffusion indexes: new orders, shipments, employment, delivery times and inventories with equal weights (20% each). Each ISM-adjusted index is the sum of the percent responding "higher" and one-half of the percent responding "no change."
The figures from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve dating back to 1968 can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The expectation from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is available in AS1REPNA.
| Philadelphia Fed - Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (%, SA) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan'20 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM-Adjusted Business Conditions | 54.8 | 60.1 | 61.5 | 55.4 | 55.5 | 57.7 | 57.2 |
| General Factory Sector Business Conditions | 11.1 | 26.3 | 32.3 | 2.4 | 9.9 | 20.9 | 27.3 |
| New Orders | 2.3 | 37.9 | 42.6 | 11.1 | 14.1 | 21.0 | 25.3 |
| Shipments | 14.4 | 24.9 | 46.5 | 15.7 | 16.9 | 22.8 | 26.7 |
| Unfilled Orders | 1.4 | 22.2 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 11.8 |
| Delivery Time | 18.5 | 18.0 | 20.5 | 12.5 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 10.6 |
| Inventories | 10.3 | 1.8 | -2.5 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 2.8 |
| Number of Employees | 8.5 | 27.2 | 12.7 | 16.8 | 16.9 | 21.5 | 16.1 |
| Average Workweek | 18.0 | 25.7 | 25.3 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 15.9 | 14.9 |
| Prices Paid | 27.1 | 38.9 | 28.5 | 15.9 | 19.7 | 46.1 | 30.4 |
| Expectations - General Business Conditions; Six Months Ahead | 39.2 | 44.3 | 62.7 | 34.8 | 28.4 | 36.8 | 47.1 |
Sandy Batten
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
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