Global| Jun 08 2007Turkish Industrial Production Pauses after Earlier Surge; National Economy Expanding and Diversifying
Summary
Industrial production in Turkey has declined in the last two reported months, but those follow a very strong performance in February. In total, IP dropped 1.9% and 3.4% in April and March, respectively, while it surged 6.4% in [...]
Industrial production in Turkey has declined in the last two reported months, but those follow a very strong performance in February. In total, IP dropped 1.9% and 3.4% in April and March, respectively, while it surged 6.4% in February. Total manufacturing output fell 3.0% in April and 3.9% in March, but February was up 7.5%. These are all month-to-month figures, seasonally adjusted by Haver Analytics. Data on Turkey are included in Haver's EMERGEMA database, with the Middle Eastern and African nations.
As is evident from just the moves in the totals, Turkish industry behavior is not very smooth. Even the mature textile sector -- from the traditional rugs to high fashion, for instance -- has been growing recently, but fell hard in 2005. Newer sectors are more erratic still. Machinery production was down 2.8% in April and 13.1% in March, but it had surged by 22% during 2006.
This said, the economy is a diverse one, with the traditional textiles now joined by a wide array of other sectors. Metals and machinery are notable as well as automobile production. Indeed, the auto and truck output have expanded rapidly, with a pace now of about 50,000 cars monthly and 30,000 trucks. The truck figures rival Germany and France and exceed the UK. [Those countries' auto and truck output volumes are in Haver's G10+ database.] The diversity, of course, helps limit the lurches in total industrial production as strength in one sector can balance weakness elsewhere. And the Turkish economy as a whole is moving ahead. Its US-dollar equivalent GDP in 2000 prices was as large last year as those of Austria, Belgium and Switzerland and it is rapidly gaining on Sweden, all much more established. Of course, the standard of living of the average Turk remains a mere fraction of Belgians, Austrians and Swiss. But the growth is encouraging.
| TURKEY Industrial Production ( % Change) |
Apr 2007* | Mar 2007* | Feb 2007* | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2000- 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Industry | -1.9 | -3.4 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 9.8 | 2.8 |
| Manufacturing | -3.0 | -3.9 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 10.4 | 3.2 |
| Textiles | 3.0 | 2.0 | 9.4 | -1.1 | -11.8 | -1.5 | 2.9 |
| Basic Metals | 1.6 | -1.0 | 3.9 | 10.7 | 3.4 | 11.6 | 5.4 |
| Machinery | -2.8 | -13.1 | 4.4 | 22.0 | 1.2 | 31.0 | 5.7 |
| Motor Vehicles | -3.0 | -10.3 | 5.2 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 53.3 | 0.9 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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