Global| Feb 10 2017U.S. Budget Surplus Eases in January; Deficit Declines This Fiscal Year
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that during January, the federal government ran a $51.3 billion budget surplus compared to a $55.2 billion surplus in January 2016. A $33.0 billion surplus had been expected in the Action [...]
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that during January, the federal government ran a $51.3 billion budget surplus compared to a $55.2 billion surplus in January 2016. A $33.0 billion surplus had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. So far in FY'17, the federal government has run a $156.9 billion budget deficit, down 2%, compared to $160.4 billion in the first four months of FY'16.
Overall net revenues improved 0.5% so far in FY'17 versus FY'16. Individual income taxes increased 3.2% y/y following a 0.3% rise in all of FY'16. Social insurance contributions increased an improved 5.6% y/y, while excise taxes fell 5.8% y/y. Corporate income taxes declined 7.8% y/y following a 12.9% drop during all of FY'16.
Government spending edged 0.2% higher y/y so far in FY'17 compared to 4.5% growth during all of last year. Health insurance spending improved 8.7% y/y and Social Security outlays rose 2.9% y/y. Working the other way, Medicare expenditures declined 7.6% y/y after 8.8% growth in FY'16; and income security spending fell 6.1% y/y with lower unemployment. National defense expenditures declined 1.5% y/y so far in FY'17, but interest outlays increased 12.9% y/y.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
| United States Government Finance | January | FY'16 | FY'15 | FY'14 | FY'13 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | -- | $51.3 bil. | $-587.4 bil. | $-438.9 bil. | $-483.4 bil. | $-680.2 bil. |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.1% |
| % of Total | ||||||
| Net Revenues (Fiscal Year 2017, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 13.3% |
| Individual Income Taxes | 47 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 16.3 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 9 | -7.8 | -12.9 | 7.2 | 17.3 | 12.9 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 34 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 8.0 | 12.1 |
| Excise Taxes | 3 | -5.8 | -3.3 | 5.3 | 11.1 | 6.3 |
| Net Outlays (Fiscal year 2017, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 0.2 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 1.4 | -2.4 |
| National Defense | 15 | -1.5 | 0.7 | -2.3 | -4.7 | -6.3 |
| Health | 13 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 17.8 | 14.3 | 3.3 |
| Medicare | 15 | -7.6 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 5.5 |
| Income Security | 13 | -6.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 | -4.3 | -1.1 |
| Social Security | 24 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 5.2 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | -7.6 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 11.5 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 3 | -8.2 | -10.2 | 34.7 | 25.9 | -21.9 |
| Interest | 6 | 12.9 | 7.8 | -1.8 | 2.8 | 0.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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