Global| Nov 20 2013U.S. Business Inventories Increase in September
Summary
Total business inventories increased 0.6% in September (3.1% y/y) following a 0.4% August rise, revised from 0.3% reported before. These stocks accompanied a modest 0.2% rise in business sales (2.9% y/y) which came after August's 0.3% [...]
Total business inventories increased 0.6% in September (3.1% y/y) following a 0.4% August rise, revised from 0.3% reported before. These stocks accompanied a modest 0.2% rise in business sales (2.9% y/y) which came after August's 0.3% increase. As a result, the inventory-to-sales ratio was again at 1.29, where it's been since April. If this ratio were carried to the third digit, though, it would be 1.292 in September, up from 1.287 in August, not quite as insignificant a result as seen at first glance.
In the retail sector, inventories advanced 0.8% (5.7% y/y) in September, including a sizable 1.9% rise in motor vehicles (9.7% y/y). This was tied to a drop of 1.2% in motor vehicle sales then, which, as noted in the Retail Sales report, was quickly recovered in October. Inventories excluding autos rose 0.4% in September (4.0% y/y). Inventories of furniture, electronics and appliances rose 0.3% (-1.4% y/y) while building materials rose 0.8% (+3.3% y/y). Food & beverage store inventories were unchanged (+2.1% y/y), and apparel store inventories rose 0.4% (+2.9% y/y). General merchandise stores' inventories rose 0.9% (a sizable 6.2% y/y). The retail inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.42 in September from 1.40 in August.
Merchant wholesale inventories increased 0.4% (2.2% y/y). Durable goods distributors' stocks rose 0.3% after 0.8% in August, and those at nondurable goods distributors rose 0.5% after a 0.7% rise in August. Wholesalers' inventory-to-sales ratio in September was 1.18, the same as August's upwardly revised ratio. Factory sector inventories rose 0.4% (1.7% y/y), and the resulting inventory-to-sales ratio moved to 1.30 from 1.29 in August.
As noted above, total September business sales rose 0.2% (4.2% y/y). As in August, this was again led by a 0.6% rise (3.9% y/y) in wholesale sales. Retail sales were flat in September (3.4% y/y) while sales less autos were up 0.3% (2.6% y/y). Shipments from the factory sector edged up 0.1% (1.5% y/y).
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
| Business Inventories (%) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 8.8 |
| Retail | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 6.2 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 4.1 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 5.5 | 9.2 | 10.5 |
| Manufacturing | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 10.2 | 9.8 |
| Business Sales (%) | |||||||
| Total | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 11.0 | 9.7 |
| Retail | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.8 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 4.6 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 12.8 | 12.1 |
| Manufacturing | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 12.1 | 11.0 |
| I/S Ratio | |||||||
| Total | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.27 | 1.28 |
| Retail | 1.42 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.36 | 1.40 |
| Retail Excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.22 | 1.23 | 1.26 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.20 | 1.19 | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Manufacturing | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.28 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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