Global| Jan 08 2016U.S. Consumer Credit Shows Another Moderate Increase
Summary
Consumer credit outstanding increased $14.0 billion in November after October's $15.6 billion, which was revised from $16.0 billion. Action Economics Forecast Survey participants looked for an $18.3 billion increase. During the last [...]
Consumer credit outstanding increased $14.0 billion in November after October's $15.6 billion, which was revised from $16.0 billion. Action Economics Forecast Survey participants looked for an $18.3 billion increase. During the last ten years, there has been a 46% correlation between the y/y growth in consumer credit and y/y growth in personal consumption expenditures.
Nonrevolving credit borrowing grew by $8.3 billion in November (7.6% y/y). Federal government loans (36.1% of that total) increased 12.4% y/y. Finance company balances (24.1% of the nonrevolving credit amount) rose 1.9%. Borrowing at depository institutions (25% of this total) increased 6.1% y/y, and borrowing at credit unions (11.1% of the total) advanced 12.8% y/y. Nonprofit & educational institution loans (1.8% of the total) declined 12.1% y/y, and nonfinancial business loans (0.8% of the total) were flat y/y.
Revolving consumer credit in November grew $5.7 billion, up 4.9% y/y. These credit card balances at depository institutions (83.3% of this total) increased 6.8% y/y. Finance company holdings (6.3% of the total) fell 5.3% y/y, while borrowing from credit unions (5.4% of the total) advanced 7.5% y/y. Nonfinancial business credit (2.3% of the total) fell 3.3% y/y, and securitized credit card balances (2.7% of the total) declined 14.7% y/y.
These Federal Reserve Board figures are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. There is a break in the credit outstanding data from November 2010 to December 2010 due to the Fed's benchmarking process. Benchmark estimates are based on the Census of Finance Companies (CFC) and the Survey of Finance Companies (SFC) conducted in 2010 and 2011, respectively.
The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Credit Outstanding (M/M Chg, SA) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | $14.0 bil. | $15.6 bil. | $28.7 bil. | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% |
| Revolving | 5.7 | 0.1 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Nonrevolving | 8.3 | 15.5 | 22.0 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 8.5 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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