Global| Nov 07 2012U.S. Consumer Credit Up in Non-Revolving; Credit Card Debt Falls
Summary
Consumer credit increased $11.4B in September, following a modestly revised $18.3B gain in August, the Federal Reserve reported. The September gain was slightly larger than the $10.3B forecasters expected, according to the Action [...]
Consumer credit increased $11.4B in September, following a modestly revised $18.3B gain in August, the Federal Reserve reported. The September gain was slightly larger than the $10.3B forecasters expected, according to the Action Economics survey consensus. The year-to-year gain was 5.5%, the same as in August.
Non-revolving credit - car loans, students loans and other specific loan contracts - remained strong, with a $14.3B increase, almost the same as the $14.1B in August. The year-to-year gain was 8.0%, even a bit firmer than August's 7.8%, already the strongest in 10 years. Non-revolving credit accounts for roughly two-thirds of the credit total. In contrast, revolving credit (credit card debt) retreated, falling $2.9B after rising $4.3B in August. With an up-and-down sawtooth pattern repeating every few month, the year-to-year growth rate was just 0.5%.
The figures used in this report are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. There is a break in the credit outstanding data from November 2010 to December 2010 due to the Fed's benchmarking process. Benchmark estimates are based on the Census of Finance Companies (CFC) and the Survey of Finance Companies (SFC) conducted in 2010 and 2011, respectively. The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Credit Outstanding (M/M Chg, SA) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep '12 | Aug '12 | Jul '12 | Y/Y % * | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | ||
| Total | $11.4B | -$18.4B | -$2.6B | 5.5% | 3.4% | -1.2% | -4.5% | |
| Revolving | -2.9 | 4.3 | -4.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | -7.4 | -8.8 | |
| Non-revolving | 14.3 | 14.1 | 2.4 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.5 | -1.8 | |
| *Year-to-year changes based on Federal Reserve break-adjusted data | ||||||||
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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