Global| Sep 13 2013U.S. Consumer Sentiment Falls Unexpectedly - Again
Summary
The reading from the Reuters/University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment during mid-September fell sharply to 76.8 (-1.9% y/y) from an 82.1 final reading for August. Consensus expectations had been for near stability at 82.0. [...]
The reading from the Reuters/University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment during mid-September fell sharply to 76.8 (-1.9% y/y) from an 82.1 final reading for August. Consensus expectations had been for near stability at 82.0.
This latest downdraft in overall sentiment reflected declines in both of the major component series. The mid-September reading of current economic conditions fell to 91.8 (+7.1% y/y) from 95.2 in August. More striking is the drop in consumer expectations, to 67.2 (-8.6% y/y) from 73.7 in August. These latest results are dismaying in the wake of notable rebounds between the mid-August and final August readings, which were clearly not sustained. This latest expectations number is the lowest since January, although such steep one-month changes as the 6.5 points this time are hardly unprecedented.
The Reuters/University of Michigan survey data are not seasonally adjusted. The final monthly readings are based on telephone interviews with at least 500 households. Data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| Reuters/University of Michigan (Q1'66 = 100) | Mid-Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep 2012 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 76.8 | 82.1 | 85.1 | 74.3 | 76.5 | 67.3 | 71.8 |
| Current Economic Conditions | 91.8 | 95.2 | 98.6 | 88.7 | 85.6 | 79.1 | 80.9 |
| Consumer Expectations | 67.2 | 73.7 | 76.5 | 65.1 | 70.7 | 59.8 | 66.0 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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