Global| Nov 23 2005U.S. Consumer Sentiment Lifted Further By Drop in Oil Prices
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The November reading of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan rose 10.0% m/m to 81.6, adding a bit to the improvement through mid-month. Consensus expectations had been for a rise to 81.0. During the last ten years there [...]
The November reading of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan rose 10.0% m/m to 81.6, adding a bit to the improvement through mid-month. Consensus expectations had been for a rise to 81.0.
During the last ten years there has been a 78% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
Improved expectations fostered the m/m rise. The index of Consumer expectations rose 10.1% as expected business conditions during the next year surged 22.1% while expectations for personal finances recovered all of the prior month's drop. The mean expected inflation rate for the next twelve months fell further to 4.1% from 5.5% expected in October & September.
The current conditions index held onto the improvement through mid-month and rose 9.9% versus October. The reading of personal finances rose 7.3% and reversed all of the October decline and the reading of buying conditions for large household goods jumped 12.9% to the highest level since August.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
Why Hasn't the Jump in Oil Prices Led to a Recession? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
| University of Michigan | Nov (Final) | Nov (Prelim) | Oct | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 81.6 | 79.9 | 74.2 | -12.1% | 95.2 | 87.6 | 89.6 |
| Current Conditions | 100.2 | 100.3 | 91.2 | -4.3% | 105.6 | 97.2 | 97.5 |
| Expectations | 69.6 | 66.8 | 63.2 | -18.3% | 88.5 | 81.4 | 84.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
