Global| Oct 13 2017U.S. CPI Gain Led by Higher Energy Prices; Core Prices Tick Higher
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Consumer Price index increased 0.5% (2.2% y/y) during September following a 0.4% August gain. It was the strongest increase since January and compared to expectations for a 0.6% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The [...]
The Consumer Price index increased 0.5% (2.2% y/y) during September following a 0.4% August gain. It was the strongest increase since January and compared to expectations for a 0.6% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The CPI excluding food & energy ticked 0.1% higher (1.7% y/y) following a 0.2% rise. A 0.2% gain had been expected.
A 6.1% jump (10.1% y/y) in energy prices strengthened the overall price index. That followed a 2.8% increase. Gasoline prices jumped 13.1% (19.2% y/y) while fuel oil costs rose 8.2% (NSA, 15.6% y/y). Electricity prices held steady for a second month ( 1.7% y/y) while natural gas prices fell 0.8% (+3.8% y/y), down for the fourth straight month.
Services prices rose by a diminished 0.2% (+2.6% y/y), after a 0.4% gain. The rise reflected a lessened 0.3% increase (3.2% y/y) in shelter costs as the cost of lodging away from home rose an easier 1.5% (0.9% y/y). Rents of primary residences increased a lessened 0.2% (3.8% y/y) and the owners' equivalent rent of primary residences gained 0.2% (3.2% y/y) after three months of 0.3% increase. Recreation costs increased 0.2% (3.8% y/y) after two months of roughly 0.5% gain. Transportation services prices increased a fairly steady 0.3% (3.9% y/y) while medical care prices ticked just 0.1% higher (1.7% y/y), the weakest rise in four months.
Food prices ticked 0.1% higher (1.2% y/y) for a second month. Cereal & bakery product costs rose a lessened 0.1% (-0.1% y/y), while meat, poultry & fish prices eased 0.4% (+0.6% y/y). Fruit & vegetable prices eased 0.2% (+1.2% y/y) while dairy product prices fell 0.6% (-0.1% y/y). Egg prices edged 0.1% higher (-2.2% y/y).
Prices for goods excluding food & energy slipped 0.2% (-1.0% y/y), down for the eighth straight month. Recreation goods prices held steady (-3.0% y/y) while medical care product prices fell 0.8% (+1.0% y/y). Transportation product prices dipped 0.3% (-1.8% y/y) and apparel prices edged 0.1% lower (-0.2% y/y). Home furnishing prices fell 0.4% (-1.9% y/y) and appliance prices were off 0.5% (-1.5% y/y).
The Consumer Price Data can be found in Haver's USECON data base with additional detail in the Action Economics figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers (%) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 1.6 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -1.0 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| Services less Energy | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| Food | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| Energy | 6.1 | 2.8 | -0.1 | 10.1 | -6.6 | -16.7 | -0.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
