Global| Dec 20 2012U.S. Existing Home Sales Bounce in November to 3-Year High
Summary
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that sales of existing homes increased 5.9% in November to a 5.040M annual rate, the highest since November 2009. October's sales total was revised down slightly to 4.760M from 4.790 [...]
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that sales of existing homes increased 5.9% in November to a 5.040M annual rate, the highest since November 2009. October's sales total was revised down slightly to 4.760M from 4.790 reported last month. The November total well exceeded Consensus forecasts for 4.860M units. Sales of existing single-family homes alone rose 5.5% to 4.440M and were up 12.4% y/y. (These data have a longer history than the total sales series). Sales of condos and co-ops rose 9.1% m/m to 0.600M, up 33.3% y/y. Both single-family and condo/co-op sales were their highest since November 2009. The NAR news release indicated that sales might have been stronger still, if not for Hurricane Sandy just as the month got under way.
Median home prices rose 2.1% m/m to $180,600, up 10.1% y/y. This was a second consecutive month with yearly gains at or above 10%, extending the markedly improving trend in prices to a ninth month. These gains have been strongest in the West, where the median price was up 23.9% y/y to $248,300. In the South, the November price of $157,400 was up 10.5% y/y and in the Midwest the price rose 7.0% y/y to $141,600. Prices in the Northeast have not seen such improvement as the median sales price of $232,900 was actually 2.0% below a year ago, although prices there had recovered somewhat from the recessionary collapse in 2010, earlier than in other regions.
The supply of homes on the market fell to 4.8 months, the lowest since October 2005. The months' supply of single-family homes on the market dropped to 4.9 and for condos & coops, it fell to 4.5 months. The total number of homes on the market continued its steady decline and fell 3.8% m/m, down 22.5% y/y. Inventories of single-family homes fell 22.7% y/y while inventories of multi-family homes fell 22.8%.
Reported earlier this month, the composite index of home price affordability for October rose for a fourth consecutive month but remained 1.1% below a year ago. Mortgage payments as a percent of income edged down m/m to 12.6% versus the high of roughly 25.0% in 2006. The average monthly mortgage rate continued to decline, reaching 3.57%.
Summary data on existing home sales, prices and affordability can be found in Haver's USECON database. The regional price, affordability and inventory data are available in the REALTOR database. The consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Existing Home Sales (Thous, SAAR) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov | Oct | Sep | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | |
| Total | 5,040 | 4,760 | 4,690 | 14.5 | 4,283 | 4,181 | 4,329 |
| Northeast | 620 | 580 | 590 | 14.8 | 544 | 563 | 580 |
| Midwest | 1,190 | 1,110 | 1,090 | 21.4 | 920 | 908 | 975 |
| South | 2,040 | 1,890 | 1,880 | 17.2 | 1,685 | 1,626 | 1,640 |
| West | 1,190 | 1,180 | 1,130 | 4.4 | 1,133 | 1,083 | 1,134 |
| Single-Family Sales | 4,440 | 4,210 | 4,140 | 12.4 | 3,797 | 3,704 | 3,868 |
| Median Price, Total, ($, NSA) | 180,600 | 178,600 | 178,300 | 10.1 | 164,542 | 172,442 | 172,783 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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