Global| Nov 20 2014U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue Improvement
Summary
Sales of existing single-family homes rose 1.5% to 5.260 million (AR, +2.5% y/y) in October from 5.180 million in September, a slight revision from 5.170 million reported before. Sales were 2.2% below their recent high in July 2013. [...]
Sales of existing single-family homes rose 1.5% to 5.260 million (AR, +2.5% y/y) in October from 5.180 million in September, a slight revision from 5.170 million reported before. Sales were 2.2% below their recent high in July 2013. The latest volume was well ahead of consensus expectations for 5.15 million sales in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales of single-family homes were up 1.3% (+2.9% y/y) to 4.630 million. Sales of condos and co-ops increased 3.3% (0.0% y/y) to 0.630 million.
The median sales price of an existing home edged down 0.4% to $208,300 last month. While this was the fourth consecutive monthly decline, it appears that move is seasonal, and the median price is still 5.4% above a year ago.
By region, October sales increased everywhere except the West; there they almost reversed their September jump of 7.1%, as they fell 5.0% and were 3.9% below a year ago. The Midwest had the opposite of this pattern, as sales there rebounded 5.1% in October after a 4.8% decline in September. They were 2.5% above the year-earlier amount. Sales in the Northeast were up 2.9% in October to a level 4.1% ahead of October 2013. And sales in the South gained 2.8% in the month, up 3.3% from the year earlier, and at 2.170 million, were the highest in that region since July 2007. Notably, as seen here, all regions except the West moved to a positive year-on-year comparison in October.
During September, home affordability improved 4.5% (-0.9% y/y) as monthly mortgage payments slipped to 15.1% of median family income, down from their recent high of 16.1%. Mortgage rates edged down to 4.21% from 4.24% in September and the recent high of 4.54% in January.
The inventory of unsold homes was up 5.2% y/y to 2.220 million. Compared to sales, this supply of unsold homes fell to 5.1 months. That compares to an 11.9-month peak supply in July of 2010.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability can be found in Haver's USECON database. The regional price, affordability and inventory data are available in the REALTOR database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, reported in the AS1REPNA database.
| Existing Home Sales (SAAR, 000s) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Y/Y % | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 5,260 | 5,180 | 5,050 | 2.5 | 5,073 | 4,659 | 4,277 |
| Northeast | 710 | 690 | 670 | 4.4 | 659 | 597 | 543 |
| Midwest | 1,240 | 1,180 | 1,240 | 2.5 | 1,193 | 1,064 | 917 |
| South | 2,170 | 2,110 | 2,020 | 5.3 | 2,032 | 1,834 | 1,683 |
| West | 1,140 | 1,200 | 1,120 | -3.4 | 1,190 | 1,164 | 1,133 |
| Single-Family Sales | 4,630 | 4,570 | 4,470 | 2.9 | 4,471 | 4,128 | 3,792 |
| Median Price Total ($, NSA) | 208,300 | 209,700 | 218,400 | 5.6 | 195,667 | 175,442 | 164,542 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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