Global| Feb 21 2012U.S. Existing Home Sales Edge Higher, Supply of Homes for Sale Hovers Near Lows
Summary
The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes edged up 0.4% (+9.1% y/y) in January to a 4.920M annual rate. December's sales were revised downward slightly from 4.94M to 4.90M, representing a decrease of [...]
The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes edged up 0.4% (+9.1% y/y) in January to a 4.920M annual rate. December's sales were revised downward slightly from 4.94M to 4.90M, representing a decrease of 1.2% from November. Routine annual seasonal adjustment revisions altered the monthly pattern modestly. Consensus expectations had projected a 4.90M pace for January. Sales of existing single-family homes alone increased 0.2% in January to 4.340M, up 8.5% y/y. (These data have a longer history than the total sales series.) Sales of condos and co-ops rose 1.8% m/m to 0.580M, up 13.7% y/y.
The median price of an existing home fell 3.7% (+12.3% y/y) to $173,600. This is a fairly typical drop for January, when prices nearly always decline from December amounts. In the West, the median price surged 26.6% y/y to $239,800. By contrast, in the Northeast, the median sales price of $230,500 was up only 2.4% y/y. In the South, the price of $152,100 was up 13.4% y/y and in the Midwest the price rose 8.6% y/y to $131,800.
The total number of homes for sale continues to decline, producing anecdotal evidence of genuine shortages in some communities. The sum of single-family and condos & coops on the market was 1.740M at the end of January, down 25.3% from a year ago and equal to a 4.2-month supply at current sales rates. Since the advent of this series in 1999, only one month has seen few houses and apartments on the market, 1.714M in December 1999. The months' supply was last as low as 4.2 months in April 2005; its all-time low was 3.6 months in January 2005. Inventories of single-family homes are down 25.5% y/y to 1.550M, while inventories of multi-family homes fell 23.3% y/y in January to 194,000. The months' supply of single-family homes on the market was 4.3 months, and for condos & coops, 4.0 months, both lows since the spring of 2005.
Reported earlier this month, the composite index of home price affordability rose 0.2% y/y in December. Mortgage payments as a percent of income remained at 12.5% for a third month versus the high of roughly 25.0% in 2006. The average monthly mortgage rate fell 7 basis points to 3.43%.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability can be found in Haver's USECON database. The regional price, affordability and inventory data are available in the REALTOR database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Existing Home Sales (Thous, SAAR) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | Dec | Nov | Y/Y% | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | |
| Total | 4,920 | 4,900 | 4,960 | 9.1 | 4,661 | 4,278 | 4,183 |
| Northeast | 650 | 620 | 610 | 12.1 | 596 | 543 | 563 |
| Midwest | 1,160 | 1,120 | 1,170 | 17.2 | 1,067 | 918 | 909 |
| South | 1,960 | 1,940 | 1,990 | 14.0 | 1,833 | 1,683 | 1,626 |
| West | 1,150 | 1,220 | 1,190 | -5.7 | 1,165 | 1,133 | 1,084 |
| Single Family Sales | 4,340 | 4,330 | 4,360 | 8.5 | 4,130 | 3,793 | 3,705 |
| Median Price, Total, ($, NSA) | 173,600 | 180,200 | 179,400 | 12.3 | 175,442 | 164,542 | 172,442 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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