Global| Dec 06 2005U.S. Factory Inventories Back on the Rise, Order Backlogs Surged
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Factory inventories in October rose 0.6% following an upwardly revised 0.1% up tick in September. Less petroleum, the 0.4% (3.9% y/y) rise in factory inventories was the strongest since February. The October inventory gain was led by [...]
Factory inventories in October rose 0.6% following an upwardly revised 0.1% up tick in September. Less petroleum, the 0.4% (3.9% y/y) rise in factory inventories was the strongest since February.
The October inventory gain was led by a 11.4% rise in motor vehicles but additionally reflected a 0.4% (4.1% y/y) increase in electrical equipment and a 0.5% (-1.1% y/y) rise in computers & electronic products. Nondurables inventories rose 0.9% (4.9% y/y) and less petroleum, the 0.5% (+2.7% y/y) rise in nondurable inventories was the first in four months.
Factory shipments recovered 1.0% and factory sector orders surged 2.2%. The advance report of a 3.4% jump in durables goods orders was revised to 3.7%.
Unfilled orders jumped 1.6% and pulled the year to year gain to a near record 12.1%. Less the transportation sector backlogs continued strong and surged 1.1% (9.8% y/y) while the ratio of total unfilled orders to shipments rose further to the highest level since 2002.
| Factory Survey (NAICS) | Oct | Sept | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | 0.6% | 0.1% | 4.7% | 7.7% | -1.1% | -5.4% |
| New Orders | 2.2% | -1.4% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 3.5% | -2.5% |
| Shipments | 1.0% | -0.4% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 1.5% | -2.5% |
| Unfilled Orders | 1.6% | 0.6% | 12.1% | 8.4% | 8.0% | -8.5% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
