For nine straight weeks gas prices have moved
upward. The pump price of regular
gasoline rose another six cents last week to $3.84 per gallon, the
highest level since late April. And this is the time of year when seasonal
price pressures should be easing with less driving. So when Haver
Analytics made the adjustment, the seasonally-adjusted price for regular rose
a greater eight cents w/w to $3.62 per gallon.
The price for a barrel of light sweet crude oil pulled back 79
cents w/w to $95.68 per barrel last week but still was up from the
late-June weekly low of $80.92. Yesterday, the cost of crude slipped
further to $95.30 per barrel. Prices peaked at $113.93 in April, 2011.
Brent crude also fell last week to $112.83 per barrel but recovered to $114.26
yesterday. Natural gas prices slipped last week to $2.73 per mmbtu but
yesterday jumped back to $2.86, still roughly half the early-January 2010
peak of $6.50. Reduced driving and improved fuel economy lowered the demand for
gasoline by 1.0% y/y last week. The demand for residual fuel oil, used
for heating, fell 13.6% y/y and distillate demand was off 6.2% y/y. Inventories
of crude oil and petroleum products ticked up 0.2% y/y. That comparison
was improved from the 5.0% y/y decline this past fall. The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and
can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY
and the gasoline demand figures are in OILWKLY.
Weekly Price
09/03/12
08/27/12
08/20/12
Y/Y%
2011
2010
2009
Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per
Gallon, Regular)
3.84
3.78
3.74
4.6
3.52
2.78
2.35
Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per
bbl.)
95.68
96.47
94.42
8.6
95.14
79.51
61.39
Natural Gas ($/mmbtu)
2.73
2.78
2.77
-32.3
3.99
4.40
3.95
Global| Sep 05 2012U.S. Gasoline Price Rise Is Unrelenting
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
by Tom Moeller September 5, 2012
Chain store sales slipped 0.4% last week (+3.7% y/y) and reversed the prior week's increase. For August as a whole, sales fell 1.6% m/m after a 3.3% July gain. During the last ten years there has been a 72% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in retail sales at general merchandise stores. That correlation recently has increased.
General merchandise store sales account for 15% of total retail sales. The ICSC-Goldman Sachs retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The leading indicator of purchases at chain stores weakened for the sixth week in the last seven (+1.5% y/y). The composite leading economic indicator is compiled from four series: (1) The MBA's volume index of mortgage applications for home purchase, (2) the ABC News/Money magazine's survey of consumer buying conditions, (3) new filings for jobless benefits, and (4) the 30-year government bond yield.
The chain store sales data are in Haver's SURVEYW.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 08/31/12 | 08/25/12 | 08/18/12 | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 536.1 | 538.4 | 535.9 | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 0.1% |
| W/W % | -0.4 | 0.5 | -1.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
by Tom Moeller September 5, 2012
It seems odd, but fewer mortgage applications are
accompanying falling interest rates. The
Mortgage Bankers Association index of total mortgage applications fell
another 2.5% last week (+27.5% y/y), the fifth straight week of sharp
decline. Applications have fallen 18.6% from the June high. Applications
to refinance fell 3.0% w/w and by nearly one quarter during the
last five weeks. Home purchase applications slipped 0.8% last week
and they're down 13.2% from the June high. Applications for fixed interest
rate loans have risen by nearly one-third y/y as lower mortgage rates are
locked in. Conversely, variable rate loan applications have fallen 19.5%
y/y.
The effective rate on fixed-interest, conventional 15-year mortgages
fell w/w to 3.19% compared to 3.47% in January. The effective rate on a
30-year fixed rate loan fell back to 3.89%. On a 30-year Jumbo loan, the
effective rate declined to 4.14%. Though it's narrowed slightly of late,
the spread between 15- and 30-year loan rates continued wide by historical
standards. The effective interest rate on an adjustable 5-year mortgage
slipped to 2.77% and was down from its 3.93% high during February of last
year. The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top
lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and
market indexes. The weekly survey covers roughly 50% of all U.S.
residential mortgage applications processed each week by mortgage banks,
commercial banks and thrifts. The figures for weekly mortgage applications
are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
MBA Mortgage
Applications (SA, 3/16/90=100)
08/31/12
08/24/12
08/17/12
Y/Y%
2011
2010
2009
Total Market Index
766.1
786.1
821.3
27.5
572.3
659.3
736.4
Purchase
178.4
179.9
177.4
11.8
182.6
199.8
263.5
Refinancing
4,216.0
4,346.2
4,609.9
33.0
2,858.4
3,348.1
3,509.2
15-Year Mortgage Effective Interest
Rate (%)
3.19
3.23
3.26
3.76
(8/11)3.97
4.39
4.85
by Tom Moeller September 5, 2012
Workers produced more for their effort in Q2'12 than estimated last month. Nonfarm business sector productivity for last quarter was revised up to 2.2% (1.2% y/y) from last month's estimate of a 1.6% gain. However, since growth in compensation also was revised up to 3.7% (2.2% y/y) from 3.3%, the rise in unit labor costs was lessened just slightly to 1.5% (0.9% y/y) from 1.7%. In the factory sector productivity growth was little-changed at a minimal 0.1% (2.9% y/y), but compensation growth was raised to 0.9% (0.4% y/y). As a result, growth in unit labor costs was raised to 0.8% (-2.4% y/y) from 0.3%.
The productivity & cost figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
| Productivity & Costs (SAAR,%) | Q2'12 (Revised) | Q2'12 | Q1'12 | Q4'11 | Q2 Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Business Sector | ||||||||
| Output per Hour (Productivity) | 2.2 | 1.6 | -0.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 3.1 | 2.9 |
| Compensation per Hour | 3.7 | 3.3 | 5.1 | -0.7 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Unit Labor Costs | 1.5 | 1.7 | 5.6 | -3.3 | 0.9 | 2.0 | -1.0 | -1.5 |
| Manufacturing Sector | ||||||||
| Output per Hour | 0.1 | 0.2 | 5.5 | 0.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 6.4 | 0.1 |
| Compensation per Hour | 0.9 | 0.5 | 6.7 | -6.0 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 4.1 |
| Unit Labor Costs | 0.8 | 0.3 | 1.2 | -6.6 | -2.4 | 0.1 | -5.0 | 4.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
